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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3192)	10/22/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: gc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

if IT budget was affected by y2k, then dell, intc, cpq, msft, csco should all be affected. Strangely, it does not look like that way.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3192)	10/22/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Michelle, As usual, we are in total agreement. One day we'll have to disagree because this is getting boring.<g> << Which means, weve already migrated everybody to our software and dont have anything else to sell them.>> So true. That's why all this focus on this middle market. Without the middle market these companies are dead from the perspective of growing license fees. But even with it they've got to come up with new products...This is what happened to many of the mainframe legacy vendors in the late 80's and very early 90's. The same saturation point was reached and there just weren't as many companies to sell to. That's when these vendors decided to move into professional services to compensate for declining software revenue. I am still waiting for PSFT to buy a SFA vendor....Other than that I can't think where there is tremendous growth potential. They already have the SCM product. Can you come up with anything??

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3192)	10/22/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Respond to of 4509

Well I'm on a roll here about this y2k thing. Why don't they just REALLY downgrade (as in say "sell" vs. this stupid "hold" thing they say)all the companies in this sector who are using Y2K as their excuse. I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed investors next year when the dust settles on Y2K and the growth doesn't accelerate. But then again, for those investors who are smart enough to figure all this out for themselves and buy depressed stock in companies who are growing in this "temporary" Y2K environment, there will probably be positive surprises.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3192)	10/23/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: Rick	Respond to of 4509

I completely agree that the Y2K mania is being used as a convenient explanation of not meeting expectations. Basically, most of the companies not meeting expectations have simply set expectations too high, run into the law of large numbers, run up against the natural cycle of more competition and lower prices, or a combination of all of these things. In a vibrant economy it is only natural that successful companies with fat profits invite more competition, and ultimately have less pricing power. But this explanation is too ordinary and dull, so we come up with colorful explanations or one-time phenomena. That way you can convince investors that the slowdown is only temporary. I do think PeopleSoft is a good investment at these prices, but I think we have to be realistic that we have a non-temporary, natural slowing growth. On top of that we have the SAP gorilla trying to buy into markets by giving away it's software. I am surprised that this happened as soon as it did, but it was an inevitable part of the evolution. Rick.