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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (3203)	10/23/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: gc	Respond to of 4509

You have to understand that ANY statements on the thread (given by bear or bull alike) is personal thought in nature. It's just one man's opinion. Take it at your own risk.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (3203)	10/23/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: gc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

BTW, 17 is NOT a support level.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (3203)	10/23/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Raptor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4509

Hi, Mel .. as you know, I think this chart reading seems like so much jiggery pokery (as far as usefulness for seeing the future), but it seems to me what we have seen since Wednesday morning for three days now is 'support' for PSFT in the mid-19's. At least we have some stability and the bottom has not fallen out as some have predicted (recognizing it's only been three days). Furthermore, I simply do not understand (in a mostly non-argumentative way) how anyone can say what a next support level is. I asked someone this before and I believe the basic response was that the support level becomes defined after the fact. IMO, a 'next support level' would be determined by a number of factors, including the factors which caused a sell off, sending price down, the perceived severity of the bad news and its impact on PSFT, etc. Example, a press release from SAP announces a key signing win against PSFT for millions (not great news, but perhaps another skirmish lost in the overall battle). Versus the example that PSFT issues a press release in mid-November that they are again lowering expectations for the quarter. Clearly these two events will re-define 'support' for the stock in the market. Nothing in a chart can predict either of these two events (occurrence nor the timing of). Example.. By 5:15pm on Tuesday, everyone wondered where PSFT was going the next day. There were predictions all over the map. Looking back, the support level was mid-19's. Isn't this a correct assertion? ------------------------------------------ Keeping in mind the realities of today's environment, I'd like to know if PSFT has any new strategic plans to deal with recent setbacks and if there is some new tack they can take to regain favor with investors and shareholders. In other words, I'd rather focus (and I don't mean this as a direction for the thread - anything goes here - well almost anything) on what opportunities PSFT has in the market and what might be going on in the next year or so in the business application software arena. Of course we hear about that stuff on the thread here and we gets lots of info. I think information on what is happening out there in the real world will be far more useful to me than what the next support level might be. I know the last part sounds preachy - and I don't mean it that way. I am just trying to say what I think. No one else has to think the same, but I wonder if anyone else does (I lie awake nights wondering <g>).

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (3203)	10/23/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: Tom_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4509

Oh no you don't... Nope. You can't carry on a multi-post discussion about how Technical Analysis stuff should properly be presented to the thread and at the same time forbid anyone else from jumping out of the bushes and challenging TA itself. Not fair to our side. If TA worked, the stock world would be awash with anal/mathematical zillionaires. It doesn't; it isn't. Simple task to prove that it does work, to prove that it's not just a finely-polished backward telescope. Just have TA tell us where a certain stock is going to be tomorrow, a week from now, a month, a quarter, a year. Can't be done. Business forecasts can be made that guide us into a general feeling about how a stock will flow. But then tomorrow, or next Thursday, China, say, bombs, say, Russia, or the lab comes out with something that makes coffee obsolete. Poor little SBUX chart, then. IMO, many of the people who are constantly predicting stocks for us, on TV or here, are more about ego-boosting and money-making than science. Go to the Yahoo threads (a risky proposition, admittedly, since they are far, far north of Hadrian's Wall) and listen to the incessant drumbeat of chest-thumping. It's going to do this!!! No--I say it's going to do that!!! I'm right!!!!! Psychology tells us where all this comes from. And the thing is, TA gives these folks a pseudo-intellectual/scientific hook to hang their hats on. By golly, I can play with these fascinating lines and numbers and understand them and yes, discover Truth. I am BIG. And then, worse: when, by the law of statistical inevitability, they hit it right, once, there's no stopping them, ever. Harmless, yes. We don't have to listen. But sometimes, you know, don't you just want to... "Adam Smith", one of the three wise men of stocks IMO, used to collect TA books as a hobby. For amusement. God, what a rant. Slow stock day. Enjoyed it, though. Harmless, yes? Tom