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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3951)10/24/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: dwlima  Respond to of 10081
 
i agree that buy and hold is often better than buy and sell. when i find interesting companies that have skilled people at helm, a good product, positive test market results, strong and growing distribution channel (re-sellers), backing from one of the most valuable companies in the world, etc. and a huge price reduction- i get excited. i bought into GMGC when it was at $10 and sold around $12-$13. i sold because the market valuation was lofty (imo) at a time when no subscription rate was known. Now, with a price at $6 or so, i think it is well worth the gamble...although i paid 6.40.

it is easy to blurt out possible subscriber rates, but if this company was able to reach 100,000 subscribers in the next 2-3 years- most cannot imagine the stock price appreciation we would see. imagine the following scenario of 4 customers:

(based on $35 per month average revenues- excluding reseller's take)
(and let's assume that GMGC never charges the $50 activation fee)

1) 1 customer uses the service at $35 per month for 1 year and then stops service or quits
2) 1 customer uses the service for 2 years and then leaves
3) 1 customer uses the service for 3 years and then leaves
4) one user stays committed to GMGC for throughout the years

also, make the following assumptions:
1) GMGC has a 15% profit margin (after taxes)
2) GMGC has a Beta of 1.5 and a corresponding discount rate of 15%

the present value of the 1 customer is $55
the present value of customer 2 is $95
the present value of customer 3 is $124
the present value of customer 4 is $420 (now you know why LD phone companies dish out $$$ for people to switch)

so, based on a customer base of 100,000 subscribers- GMGC would have earnings of 17.35 million or 58-cents per share per year. if we currently had 100,000 subscribers- we would have a stock price of probably 58-cents x 30 or $18 per share. of course, this does not take into account telco's partnering with GMGC and extending its cutomer base to much, much more than 100k people.

this is why i sold at $12 per share a few months ago. but, now that a potential 300% increase in stock price is very possible (imo), i am back in and back in strong.

go GMGC...let's hope those numbers are there on Nov. 11



To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3951)10/24/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Seconds Out  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10081
 
Regarding the short term, everyone should remember that the convertible preferred shareholders from this summer's financing can convert up to 25% of their shares effective November 25. The price will be determined by the 4 lowest closing prices during the preceding 20 trading days. Those 20 days start next week.

Maybe the 4 lowest days will all occur this week, or at least prior to the earnings, and who knows what else being announced, on the 11th.The senario I speak of allows them to convert at a favorable price due to the closing prices prior to some hopefully very good news, and is pure conjecture on my part. Once 4 days of very good prices (still above $5 per share) occur, it would seem to me that one less potential negative pressure exists.

Of course some dilution will occur, but that should be anticipated at this point. In fact, I think the more they convert the more positive long term sign it would be. Even though it would dilute the outstanding share value to a greater extent, it certainly would show their faith in GMGC.

What does everyone else think?

Seconds Out.