To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3951 ) 10/24/1998 12:52:00 PM From: dwlima Respond to of 10081
i agree that buy and hold is often better than buy and sell. when i find interesting companies that have skilled people at helm, a good product, positive test market results, strong and growing distribution channel (re-sellers), backing from one of the most valuable companies in the world, etc. and a huge price reduction- i get excited. i bought into GMGC when it was at $10 and sold around $12-$13. i sold because the market valuation was lofty (imo) at a time when no subscription rate was known. Now, with a price at $6 or so, i think it is well worth the gamble...although i paid 6.40. it is easy to blurt out possible subscriber rates, but if this company was able to reach 100,000 subscribers in the next 2-3 years- most cannot imagine the stock price appreciation we would see. imagine the following scenario of 4 customers: (based on $35 per month average revenues- excluding reseller's take) (and let's assume that GMGC never charges the $50 activation fee) 1) 1 customer uses the service at $35 per month for 1 year and then stops service or quits 2) 1 customer uses the service for 2 years and then leaves 3) 1 customer uses the service for 3 years and then leaves 4) one user stays committed to GMGC for throughout the years also, make the following assumptions: 1) GMGC has a 15% profit margin (after taxes) 2) GMGC has a Beta of 1.5 and a corresponding discount rate of 15% the present value of the 1 customer is $55 the present value of customer 2 is $95 the present value of customer 3 is $124 the present value of customer 4 is $420 (now you know why LD phone companies dish out $$$ for people to switch) so, based on a customer base of 100,000 subscribers- GMGC would have earnings of 17.35 million or 58-cents per share per year. if we currently had 100,000 subscribers- we would have a stock price of probably 58-cents x 30 or $18 per share. of course, this does not take into account telco's partnering with GMGC and extending its cutomer base to much, much more than 100k people. this is why i sold at $12 per share a few months ago. but, now that a potential 300% increase in stock price is very possible (imo), i am back in and back in strong. go GMGC...let's hope those numbers are there on Nov. 11