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To: diana g who wrote (31097)	10/24/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

VRC and - ''beating the crowd to the party '' ...... ....and - ''beating the traffic on the way home (out).'' re; <<VRC has been disproportionately depressed relative to the sector, is still a few dollars below it's mid-September high, and could be seen as the most compelling value in the sector (IMHO). >> diana g; nothing personal; I don't disagree with your observation on VRC in general, but it amazes me how sentiment changes so swiftly - good & bad. I think that the simplistic contrarian theory of buying into what appears to be the depths of hell, when there is blood in the streets and capitulation selling; and then selling when it seems everyone else finally ''discovers'' the momenteum has been prove true for me. ******************************************************************************** Amazing. Perspective, sentiment, momenteum and reality can change directions quicker than the wind... The ultimate irony, is that taking some profits while this thing takes a ''rest'' here - was also criticized... amazing. Can't buy 'em low nor sell 'em high anymore without getting blasted...<VBG>. Message 5923918 Dateline: October 6th << "PSS: buy VRC at or under $7; margin it to the max and start shopping for a lake retreat, new GMC Denali - Lincoln Navigator etc. Yes; Varco's selloff is a gift from the oilpatch God's... if you ever margin anything; margin VRC here & now !">> ...and to think this received criticism.....buying into the depths of hell ? ...I seem to remember the massive criticism of chasing EVI down to $17, and everyone thought VTS (my #1 fav ) was going down for the count at $10; let alone all the criticsm for loading up FGII at $10... ...Something about - ''pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered'' ...don't think we are heading back down to the August 31 or Oct 7-8th lows, but for traders - can't see not buying into the face of the big one day blowoffs, or not taking a little profit off the table here; considering 20-30-50%+ moves in a few ''DAYS" ? - HELLO ! These stocks will come back to you pricewise. What I am trying to say; is that ''The Train'' did NOT leave the station here folks. Don't get caught in the trap of jumping on the Mo-Mo train at the tops, getting shaken out at the bottoms and then trying to jump back on again... been there - done that; not fun. I would think that ''The Train'' when it finally does leave the station; will leave based upon fundamentals, like Crude over $16 and rising, rising dayrates and Rig utilization - both Jackup & Land Rigs; and it will also be off of positive earnings momenteum and it won't be before Tax Loss Selling Season is over, or even perhaps untill the Clinton debacle is settled.... Not that there is ANYTHING wrong with buying VRC RIG or even RON here, for the longterm. Even though RIG is $35 & up considerably in just days; we will see RIG @ $48-$60 again, but it will be with $4 EPS and $17-18 Oil imho. It will happen, soon - perhaps, but more probably 12-18 months. I think there is still ''big'' moves in the laggards, buying the leaders (RIG RON WFT etc.) on ''dips'' from here and for those who are traders; I think this is a ''gift'' trading scenario here for those who have ''lived & breathed'' the oilpatch. We NOW know where the bottoms are, we know where support is, we have the downgrades, we have lowered estimates - but, may still need to be lower... this volatility is good for ''tradin'' and that's what I plan to do... Keeping a little for longterm core holds here, but I am going to trade these moves - and buy deep into these sell offs. James Cramer of TheStreet.Com had a great article on buying the ''laggards'' from the bottom up on these Rallys. That is my entire point here. Why buy VRC or RON after they are up 50-70% ? I've got a great example of a trade that I'll post Monday morning as a classic example fwiw... I think too many are ''missing'' what is happening here... We had big, big short covering here - a major part of the bounce imho, had some big block fund buying (the ones that will change directions just as fast) I think they want to catch any big moves here which they did. Just watch what happens with RON if it starts to turn down again here ...those big blocks will leave just as fast as they came... RON is a great ''range'' trading stock right here and for probably a few months untill it moves ON FUNDAMENTALS - earnings and crude prices. Basically we just moved up from being irrationally oversold here on the Aug 30 & Oct 7-8tyh selloffs. Much of the selling was also from margin calls - paniac selling which VRC saw... I'll continue buying on the irrational selloffs and selling on the irrational buying... Be carefull out there... The Train has NOT left the station.