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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31103)	10/24/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Hi Slider, Let me start by saying I appreciate your posts here. I don't always agree with you, but I like how you wear your heart on your sleeve and post it. Your posts are thought-provoking and interesting. Different strategies suit different people. Different strategies are more or less successful at different times/in different situations. It's nifty that we can compare ideas and see how things play out. Your call to buy VRC at or under $7 was a good one. My strategy has been to hold through the peaks and dips, and buy more on the dips. I'm holding now; Not selling on what seem like 'peaks', and I think what happened with VRC Friday validates my strategy. VRC looked like it was falling back in sync with other OS stocks, but then up to the plate stepped someone with deep pockets and a desire for a million or more shares of VRC. If I'd sold my VRC at $9, expecting to buy back at $7 or $8, I'd be wondering now if VRC would ever see $9 again. At this point in the sector's recovery, it seems to me this sort of thing could happen with WFT or MRL or '?'. I think the risk of missing the next 'up' far outweighs the possible benefit of trying to guess the tops and bottoms of the mini-cycles. Will VRC go back to $9? to $7? I don't know. If it does, I'll be there buying more. If it doesn't, I'll still be holding the shares I have now when it gets to $16 or $32. -------------------------------------- In regard to 'Fundamentals': Earnings estimates: Can anyone who's followed these stocks take them seriously? They will rise After the stocks. I've tried twice without success to start a fight here by stating that it's NOT the Oil Price that drives OS stocks. It's Demand. Or rather, to be clearer I should say it's 'The Market's Perception of Future (supply-moderated) Demand'. I'd be glad to state my case if anyone cares. Some think any move up in OS without higher crude price is doomed to retrace. I don't think that's so. I think Price is an artifact of Demand/Supply. The Perception of Increased Future Demand will bring prosperity to the sector, IMHO. -------------------------------------- The market looks to the future, and recent movement seems to me to indicate that the market thinks Demand for oil will be increasing 6 or more months out. Maybe the market will change it's mind and we'll see new lows (But I'll bet not). In any event, I'm pretty sure that sooner or later these stocks will come back up, so the risk doesn't really seem that great. I'll wait it out if I have to. I'm buying on dips, but I'm not selling in the hope of a few points. Not with producers compliance to commitments near perfect, another meeting next week which may bring positive statements, cold weather coming, the ever present potential for mid-East war, etc. I'm holding for the most part. (Trading a little, Just for Fun. <G>) JMHO. regards, and good luck to all, diana