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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (11747)	10/24/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Toy - Interesting perspective but you have one piece wrong - Intel. Now that Intel has HP sewn up through the merced joint development, look for Intel to make strong moves to line up IBM and Sun. This new axis will clearly be driving to a model which leans to the network computing paradigm (see Gerstner's remarks last week) and a renewed focus on 64 bit UNIX with Intel leading the charge. Intel is already putting its bets on back end services and the flip side of thin clients is fat servers. But there are lots of alternatives to a pure NC which hit the TCO issues without the inherent disadvantages of the full-up EJB and NC model. I expect to see MSFT and CPQ creating a 'WinPaq' alliance which uses CPQ's formidable enterprise technology and client list combined with their best in class service organization to create the alternative enterprise architecture. they will push it through their HUGE world-wide marketing ranks to make the Java / Network Computing solution a reality. IBM is clearly weak at the moment. They are carrying a huge burden with their legacy business - take out AS400 and mainframe business and you'll see what I mean. I don't see their ability to make any standards happen without at least CPQ and HP in the game, they no longer have the market clout to make things happen on their own. And Java by itself is a two-edged sword - most of the benefits apply to net PCs at least as well as NCs, so any growth of acceptance of Java floats all the boats. It will be an interesting competition over the next weeks, months and years - I expect to see a good deal of skirmishing almost immediately, with the real critical battles in '99 and '00. I don't think anyone can predict at this point how it will come out.

To: ToySoldier who wrote (11747)	10/27/1998 4:38:00 AM
From: stak	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Toysoldier, >>The Network Computer (NC) solutions are not that popular in the real world yet because its true power will come when the Java technology has a critical mass of solutions, maturity, and industry accpetance arrives. This is getting real close. IBM is the biggest pusher of the Java drive in the industry. Their San Fransicso project is getting new partners involved every month.<< When do you see "critical mass" coming? in a few months a couple of years? after one blockbuster app is intro'd?? What is the San Francisco project? >>Once Pure Java business solutions begin showing up in more and more critical business solutions, the Network Computer will begin to flurish! MSFT knows this and we all know how aggressively they are trying to mutate Java so that this cannot happen.<< I don't even know of one. Could you mention one that has showed up in acritical business app? >> MSFT cannot stop easily is that IBM has an Iron grip on the largest fortune 100 organizations around the world. << I agree IBM is very strong that way. >> Think about it, if you wanted to know what the best overall IT direction of your company, who would go and ask - IBM or MSFT?<< I'd go to IBM , but that's just me. Many are venturing over to MSFT. >>(When my boss talks, people listen)<< Uh, ain't that E.F. Hutton?? stak