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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (9799)	10/24/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Magnatizer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Joe nice backtrack on the fries comment. But, we both know you need fries to fill up after a Jonesys loin. I do pass on the slaw however, not enough grease. ht david

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (9799)	10/25/1998 6:44:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

David, I'll buy you the fries even if I win. It's a principle thing. The fries weren't in the original deal, but you feel that you must have the fries. OK, I'll buy you the fries. Reposting Amigo Mike's excellent post on the APCO thread: Yes this run is somewhat different than previous. We have totally different market conditions as compared to earlier this year and the trending of the stock has been downward for the last 6 months. APCO was just getting noticed and was unproven (has since proven) back then and was trading in uncharted territory. IMO ..... what we are looking at is the crunch of several factors basically hitting within a very small timeframe. 1. Earnings next week (record qtr coming) 2. Improving market conditions for small caps 3. Technicals (chart starting to show life) 4. Fundies (have never been better) 5. Short covering ("Amigo Mike is a positive for shorts" as one poster on Yahoo says ..... ROFL ..... geee ... he hasn't said anything lately .... wonder why.... maybe his shorts are on fire !!!) 6. Very very bad investor sentiment regarding the company 7. More than 50% of the stock is held by mgmt and institutions (and I would bet that that number has increased recently ... waiting for new data). 8. And lastly, if you study the chart carefully with a particular eye towards volume, you will notice at the top the VERY large volumes traded daily with little upward price action. IMO ..... many investors are holding shares in the $12-14+ range. Some sold .... but many others didn't knowing the company is rock solid. Therefore, I believe that there has been accumulation and dollar averaging as the sentiment in the market turns positive and almost NO selling. Supply and demand. I'd bet that some of those shares won't see the market for some time to come ..... making the float of available shares even smaller. Add to this a host of other investors who had owned APCO earlier in the year and have been waiting to get their hands back on this stock cheap ..... and all these factors change the whole trading pattern for the stock. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. The Amigos think fair value is $12 minimum right now .... today. Obviously the stock cannot just continue higher straight to $12. I am actually surprised that APCO was up today. I had expected consolidation back towards the 50 dma (retest). Seems the "selloff" at open to 7 13/16 was it for the day and very very few shares. I have been checking into some things ..... and I'm beginning to wonder if earnings have been leaked. APCO will apparently announce on Tuesday rather than Friday (good sign ... I have not confirmed though). I'm thinking definitely better than expected (.14) and will stick with the .16 minimum for the Amigos. Although .......... =) Amigo Mike PS .... AND the three large deals the company signed this year have yet to start kicking in and each on its own has the potential to double APCO's business. Some investors were disappointed to hear this but it now serves as propulsion for the stock as APCO will make it's numbers WITHOUT the contribution from these deals and analysts will have to revise the earnings estimates and growth rates higher for the coming years.