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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amsterdam who wrote (2251)	10/24/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

This comment has me puzzled.....<< Their product, price, and implementation model has limited their ability to penetrate the crowded middle market>>. With the high end market wide open right now, why would you think it's important to try to move in on the crowded middle market? It's what the ERP vendors are finally being forced to do after the high end market has started to dry up. Personally I think putting a lot of focus on the middle market right now would a)be investing money in the wrong place b)result in lower margins and c)divert the companies attentions from Tom's stated mission of achieving a 50% market share before this space starts to get more crowded. Why jump into a crowded market when you haven't begun to tap the one you're in...You have to develop your plan and then excute. Seems to me like they're doing this quite successfuly.

To: Amsterdam who wrote (2251)	10/24/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6974

As long as Syborg is at SEBL they stand a chance of making it. When he leaves, all bets are off. :) Hell, just look at SYBS since he left. In the meantime, SEBL will blow whichever way the tech market blows and once this earnings period is over (this week), the wall of worry starts to build all over again. The NASDAQ was NOT strong late in the week. The only thing it really has to look forward to with any certainty is DELL earnings. Just like last quarter, money will race into DELL right up to the earnings bell and then we sell off and head to the basement. If this comes to pass, your SEBL short will be a winner. If Greenspan piggybacks a rate cut on DELL earnings, you have to wait a while. Will SEBL deliver stellar results in the meantime to burn you? No. I believe Scopus has architectural problems and is too closely tied to MSFT. I wouldn't have put my eggs in that basket, but they did. I also don't see the flood gates opening and money pouring into front office anything next year. As for Y2K and its impact on IT budgets - this is hot off Gartner's web page from there latest survey <IT budgets were relatively flat from 1997 to 1998, however 30% of IT budgets will be spent on Year 2000 efforts in 1998. We estimate 44% of IT budgets will go to Year 2000 projects in 1999.> That is a lot of potatoes that WON'T be available for SEBL or any other novel package in 1999. ttf