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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19995)	10/25/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 25960

u may be right zeev....but it seems like stocks that bounce tend to trend back down to their lows if no good news comes out...and this rally has been on average volume...not that huge... the earnings rally is over now the downgrades...tax selling and other forces will take over.... even small selling will take this down hard if their are not enough buyers who believe in a quick turnaround.... having said that....i think that this is a great stock for the long term....short term is my problem.....cant sustain >100% rise with the bad general market news coming out soon.... samir

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19995)	10/25/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

<<...the question is not what PE of trailing earnings are but what are the future earnings looking like, and what does the market look like.>> FWIW (esp. FWIW given that FA and the use of PE as a valuation tool seems to be irrelevant for this sector these days), I charted my semi-equip watch list last week. In order to dampen the signal of the sectors crash, I annualized the past 4 calendar quarters plus the present to create a "running" EPS in addition to the usuals. CYMI turned out as follows: Calendar EPS Summaries Current Fiscal Year EPS Summaries 4Q Ago EPS: $0.23 Actual Est 3Q Ago EPS: $0.24 Q1 EPS: $0.09 Mar-98 2Q Ago EPS $0.09 Q2 EPS: $0.06 Jun-98 Last Q EPS: $0.06 Q3 EPS: * $0.05 Sep-98 Present Q EPS* $0.05 Q4 EPS: * $0.03 Dec-98 * (estimated) "Running" EPS $0.536 YTY EPS Growth Rate -57% "Running" PE 24.3 Current FY EPS $0.23 YTY EPS Growth Rate 70% Current FY PE 56.5 Next FY EPS $0.39 Next FY PE 33.3 So, despite a (-) 57% EGR, the "Running PE" sits at 24 while, despite a projected 70% EGR for next year, the "Forward" PE is 33. Quite frankly, I'm at my wits end with this rally (even tho' I've profited modestly from trading) and don't know whether to admit defeat ("I blew it; missed the bottom and now face a much worse risk-return ratio") or look Mr. Market in the eye and tell him he is wrong. Everybody know the folly of the latter... Did the same for AMAT, after assuming a ($0.35) loss Q4, post adjustment: Calendar EPS Summaries Current Fiscal Year EPS Summaries 4Q Ago EPS: $0.47 Actual Est 3Q Ago EPS: $0.60 Q1 EPS: $0.60 Jan-98 2Q Ago EPS $0.37 Q2 EPS: $0.37 Apr-98 Last Q EPS: $0.13 Q3 EPS: $0.13 Jul-98 Present Q EPS* ($0.35) Q4 EPS: * ($0.35) Oct-98 * (estimated) "Running" EPS $0.976 YTY EPS Growth Rate -23% "Running" PE 34.8 Current FY EPS $0.75 YTY EPS Growth Rate -8% Current FY PE 45.3 Next FY EPS $0.69 Next FY PE 49.3 SFAM and KLAC have a similar pattern, except that KLAC has 260% EGR for next FY. My read on that is that their EPS haven't been "managed down" yet, and it remains to be seen whether they can do it as brilliantly as AMAT has to date. Anybody have any brilliant ideas? Still sitting crosseyed, still short on a couple of 'em, wishing it were all black and white.... BP