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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Martin who wrote (4122)	10/25/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: majander	Respond to of 8218

Puts look attractive now. Especially in light of the over extension of the market. I expect to see at least 2-3 days of selling coming up starting monday. Friday was only the appetizer. Could go all the way back down to 115 short-term. Things get real scary around Halloween too. I have been looking for a good opportunity to short the market and this looks like a great candidate to me. Company is way ahead of the fundamentals and the is almost giddy atmosphere about the stock. Which is what I want before I'm short. Time is right to short sale the rallys. Just like it was buy the dips the past few years. But times are a changeing rapidly and the Feds can not move fast enough to stop the D train. That right, a great depression is on the horizon. Great in a sense, it marks the end of the greatest expansion since WWII. It really is funny how people think a week can change the whole economy around. I may take many, many(dozens) months to change it if not years. Get ready for the next down leg folks. Coming soon to a cnbc near you. I'll check in with you folks next week to see who "reaped" the rewards of a major sale, coming to you. VBG Naturally this is all my opinion and don't go out and short sale every stock that you can. I could be "dead" wrong and lose every dime I have earned in the market. But then again, its looking pretty "grim"! RIP The tradin goblin

To: Bill Martin who wrote (4122)	10/26/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8218

bill, let me start over. 1. buying back stock is great when a stock goes up. 2. buying back stock isn't good when a stock goes down. no need to remind me of 1 as i'm aware of that. i'm also aware how fast things can turn for the worse. or the better. my only point is that ibm is taking a big risk. that risk is merely compounded by their increasing debt. $5 billion isn't chump change. you have to pay interest plus the principle at some point in the future. it is fine and dandy that they are borrowing money to loan to others. it would appear that the only reason they have to borrow money is b/c they are spending their own money to buy stock. that is my only point and it has yet to be refuted. IF the economy slows, IF employees decide stock options suck and want cash instead (it happens - ask the disk drive makers), IF demand slows significantly, IF they are front loading service revenue, IF they are unable to increase growth rates beyond 7%, IF japan repatriates their cash by selling bonds (driving up our rates), IF the euro competes with dollar and drives up bond supply (driving up our rates) THEN the current stock may not hold up. IF times revert to the mean then a 7% growth rate might be worth a 10 pe. that is IF the growth rate continues and doesn't shrink. now, maybe none of this stuff ever occurs. a 23 pe, imho, assumes NONE of these things occurs. i just think the risk/reward ratio is not favorable for long positions. that is jmho and my stock buyback / loan issue was just to highlight the added risk involved. but hey, the probability of ibm's stock price doing well is greater than winning the lottery for sure. good luck. it is jmho that, over the intermediate term (1-2 years), you will need luck. but hey, better lucky than good ;-)