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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rohit Nanavati who wrote (9175)	10/27/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22640

Hello Rohit, hope everything's going well. There are so many variables with this stock, it's impossible to tell. IMO, the next few weeks could bring high-eighties, maybe 90, or we could fall back to the 65-72 trading range if circumstances develop unfavorably. IMO, fairly strong support in the 65 area, I just don't feel it could get bad enough take it out convincingly, but I made a similiar statement about 110 some time ago. I suspect Cardoso's fiscal plan will do what is necessary, but expect a sea of doubts amongst investors may develop with every potential disaster scenario possible and then some...the key will be the action and the speed with which congress acts. They need to make up for lost time. Even I have been discouraged. Either we get down to business this week or we don't. A delay of the pension reform votes beyond Nov 3rd would not be received well, cause as one of the stories today pointed out, that may push the fiscal reform voting into special sessions in January. That's about the time they seem to stop showing up for work because they have to start planning for Festival, or whatever the big party in February or March is. I expect the bailout fund will be good news, but sounds like a lot of details may linger. Sounds like the IMF is ready to go, but I posted a story the other day that IDB has a meeting scheduled Nov 12 to discuss a 12B loan. So I expect the announcement to contain a lot of "too comes", but in general I hope to see it received well. Can't imagine all the world powers who have stated their committment to Brazil will let bad news on this finance package tank world markets as they start to gain stability. I expect US listings whenever they occur to generate some excitement and also expect earings from the new owners in the near future. These will hopefully be accompanied by some strategic plans which for many of the companies will be their first public comments. Then we've got Asia, Russia, interest rates, etc, etc. We shall see Rohit. Good luck, sf