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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Ralls who wrote (1562)	10/27/1998 8:50:00 AM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1998

[s. america] hi daniel, thanks for the analyst estimates with detail.. i had been speculating based on old info and this new stuff looks more realistic... seems like there is a consensus for q4 of -.37... of those mentioned am inclined towards lehman: steve levy who, as somo has pointed out, knows orctf rather well as he has been covering orctf (in a previous incarnations at oppenheimer and saloman smith barney ) all the way back from the ipo... what rubbed me wrong on my numbers last pass thru was the lack of acceleration from q3 to q4 ... if the adsl revs have been going 1 / 3 / 7 (millions nominal by qtr)... seemed a bit off that q4 would be roughly 8 especially in the context of the last qtr's inventories of $16.4 million.. (up from 11.9 in q2) ... certainly seems that they're ramping up significantly... and would expect that q4 will reflect that one quick pass from your new info (masochism on my part) .. if q3 was -.27 and q4 is gonna be in the neighborhood of -.37.... net income would be nominally - $6.2 million.. (.37 loss per share x 16.8 million shares) ...if the rest of the balance sheet stays roughly the same (a big if) and if hdsl etc gross profit comes in around $2.3 million that leaves a $3.9 million loss on adsl.... and am gonna just take a wild assed guess that this would translate into adsl rev's of $12.5 million ... (7.4/x= 2.3/3.9 therefore x=12.5) .. for a ballpark say 10-12.5 ... sounds about right and i'll stop there.. i suspect that there are two parts to the analyst's reluctance to commit to qtrly estimates beyond q4 98... the first part is the difficulty we're having getting the numbers to work and the other part is all the outstanding rfp's/tenders.. how much business they're gonna have?.. lots of possibilities out there now seem to remember a post of yours noting orctf taking away business from pair in s. america.. have you heard any detail? according to the most recent form 20f, orctf has been active in s. america all the way back at least to 95... quantities weren't much.. but according the most recent cc, they seem to be picking up now (hdsl) .. am guessing that a partner is involved, any thoughts? could be fujitsu, tho am thinking it might be someone else as the recent orctf/fujitsu alliance announced only europe and asia.. if a joint endeavor was picking up steam south of the border, it would have seemingly been an appropriate time to mention it, tho you never know.. til later s