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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Perry who wrote (3677)	10/27/1998 10:13:00 AM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Guessing at a long term holding period for Ampex shares ... In looking at Ampex's product line strictly as a high end Tape Library Product supplier, it looks like Ampex is way out in front on both essential capacity and speed as well as in features. In fact, because of this, product appeal currently is more naturally in such markets as post-production and seismic survey. The competition, such as it is, appears to be targeting the volume middle market. However, if there is a tape storage "Moore's Law" applicable here, See sunworld.com then , this middle market will rapidly mature, consolidate and become high end in short order. The Internet driven multimedia demands should guarantee the speed of and demands for this upgrade path process. The InfoStor article referenced Sony's initiative at the high end market in the context of Sony's DFT-2 product. Second generation as spec'd ( 100GB/24MBps ) is due for production volume in late Fall 99. Target applications include .. "post-production/video markets, oil-gas seismology, and network-attached storage." The article projects .. "third-generation 200GB/24MBps product in 2001 and a 400GB/ to 500GB/48MBps drive in 2005." Dovetailing on Sony's market analysis predicted product maturity cycle, I would guess that market maturity is projected at seven years out. Allowing for the forward discounting aspect of the stock market, I would further guess that relevant stock prices would reflect this maturation cycle about five years out. In conclusion, looking at Ampex as strictly a high end Tape Library product line supplier, I would anticipate a holding period of 4 to 5 years for full realization of anticipated share value. Ed Perry

To: Ed Perry who wrote (3677)	10/27/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: Kevin O'Donnell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

More Tape System Reviews It was nice to see an article that maps out the product terrain a bit. Here's another one from InfoWorld. infoworld.com Isn't it a bit disturbing though, that we don't have any products being discussed? Do we have gaps in the product line? Are we stranded in a ghetto niche market? Any insights/evaluations? Til Later, Kevin