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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25785)	10/27/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 70976

Jacob: <<2.capital flight continues unabated, ignoring attempts by Fed/treasury/IMF to build a firewall around Latin America>> Is there any recent evidence of this or are you just trying to make me feel better? <ggg> Regarding number 1, I thought we were through that already. Regarding number 4, I think the announcement in the AM will give us a clear indication of Cardoso's resolve and ability to follow the IMF line. However, given the recent ascendency of currency doves in the economic community and in the IMF, I'm no longer sure of what that line is... BP

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25785)	10/27/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

The next few days are very important re AMAT chart. At the moment, the longer term trend is indecisive. If AMAT can hold above 28.13 and then turn around and print 35 or higher, then it will count as 5 waves up from the Oct low of 21.56 and signal the beginning of a new bull market. (Once it touches 35 if it does that, st. traders should sell for a retrace back to high 20's but longer term the trend will have changed to UP)----If, however, AMAT keeps dropping as it has in the last 2 days and prints below 28.13, then the odds are high that that all we would have done is a D wave in a descending triangle ( a downsloping wedge)which started from the 54.19 top with a need to do an E wave down to complete the entire move--it being at least a 50% chance of a slight new low in the process.-----The triangle alternative shows the A wave down from 54 to 25.50 in Dec97 then a B up to 39.61 in May98 followed by a C wave down to 21.56 in early Oct perhaps followed by a D wave up to 34.98 a few days ago and then followed by a final E wave down towards and perhaps a bit below the C wave low of 21.56.------If however, AMAT holds above 28.13 and then prints 35.00, it will have traced out 5 waves up rather than the usual 3 one sees in triangles and this will negate the idea of the triangle. Bottom line-we are now in a very important test. My 2c