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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jamey who wrote (31196)	10/27/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: shust	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Oil wars predicted United Press International - October 26, 1998 20:28 By MICHAEL SMITH UPI Science News TORONTO, Oct. 26 (UPI) - Oil experts Monday predicted a world in conflict over dwindling supplies of oil - a struggle that could begin as early as next year. Researcher Mike McCormack of the Institute for Science and Society in Ellensburg, Wash., said the conflict could even explode into open war as supplies dwindle. ''There may easily be political and military problems throughout the world,'' he told reporters here during the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Toronto. Other experts said even an optimistic look at world oil supplies shows that demand will exceed supply within 20 years. Jack Edwards, a veteran of the U.S. oil industry who now teaches at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said his calculations show that world oil production will peak in 2020, based on an estimated supply of 2.8 trillion barrels worldwide. Colin Campbell of the Geneva, Switzerland-based Petroconsultants company said his estimates show there's less oil - about 1.8 trillion barrels - which means the peak will come 10 years earlier, in 2010. Regardless of which figure is right, both men said, prices will soar. ''We'll be competing with everyone else in the world for the decreasing supply of oil,'' Edwards said, ''so prices are bound to go up.'' But a new oil crisis could occur as early as next year, Campbell said. That's when the oil-producing nations of the Middle East will once again control - as they did in the 1970s - 30 percent of the world's reserves. ''The last time it reached 30 percent, we had the oil shock of the 1970s,'' Campbell said. But he added that crisis was largely political, because there still existed large reserves of undiscovered oil outside the Middle East. ''This time, the oil isn't there,'' he said. McCormack accused the U.S. administration of refusing to deal with the oil reality. He cited Energy Information Agency projections that the United States will import up to 40 percent of its oil in coming years, despite the looming shortage. ''The reality is the U.S. is going to have difficulty obtaining oil,'' he said - a difficulty that's likely to cause profound changes. Although gasoline shortages and high prices caught the public's attention during the earlier oil crisis, McCormack said, the main danger is running out of oil and natural gas to generate electrical power. ...