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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (11597)	10/27/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: Jerome Wittamer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Bill, JP's right about stock going up after splits. Stock splits are very powerful (for some unknown reasons) and usually propel stocks higher. This has been proved statistically. Stock move lower for a sleep-base (10-15 days) phase and them resume upward momentum towards and beyond the split. Just witness this for yourself. You've got one right in front of you now : AOL Take your time and study its behaviour up to December 1. Split date is Nov. 17. Just my 2c Jerome

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (11597)	10/27/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

<Your logic is about what I expect for someone who sees a $122 stock as undervalued after it reports earnings of .26 with gross margins of 37% (this is not MSFT folks).> Bill, I certainly can't argue with your valuation model. But who said these valuation models are what historically put money in your pocket? I've been watching AOL stock on a daily basis for a few years now, along with Dell and Microsoft. And I hear these valuation things every time. Meanwhile, these stocks keep doubling and more every year. You would have to be incredibly nimble to make money shorting any one of these stocks. Go back and read posts about AOL a split and 60 points ago (you won't have to look for long, maybe a few months). AOL was then as "ridiculously valued". I think this is more about supply of stock and demand, not traditional valuations. You like PE's in the low teens? Look at the oil drillers, and you could have looked at disc drive stocks last year, both of which would have cost you a fortune. Splits don't mean anything? NONSENSE! If you were to play the splits on Dell, Microsoft, AOL, and yes even Yahoo, you will have made a fortune. and I'm here to say it's happening right before our eyes again with AOL, whether the valuations are palatable to you or not. I thought the idea here was to make money. Not to try to bend the real world and the market into some dogmatic textbook ideas about what is supposed to happen according to some professor. If you want valuation geniouses, look at the experts at Long Term Capital, I think they had Harvard, MIT degrees and Nobel Laureates.... Talk to you in 6 months, we'll look at the price of AOL and see who was right. And we'll see who has put more money in their wallet!

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (11597)	10/27/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

a 255 percent* jump from the year-ago profit of $19.2 million, or 8 cents per share.* Bill, I know you can't do this for long, but it will sure drive the stock the next few years. The split helps bring in more people. Human nature makes us like to buy a stock under 100. LindyBill

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (11597)	10/27/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Jorge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Bill...If you want low P/E stocks may I recommend some companies in the steel sector?....What does P/E have to do with an investor making money on his investment?....Not much I may say...Looking at the SI DELL thread over the last 2-3 years you will find the Bears constantly saying the P/E was "WAY OUT OF LINE"...The money you'd have made over the last few years was just as obnoxious---Buku Bucks!... Since you like MSFT so well (and so do I) you probably subscribe to MSFT Investor...If you do look up a Chart of AOL and overlay DELL, MSFT, CSCO and any others of your choice...Click on the "Chart" button, select "Investment Growth".....Next, click on the "Period" button and compare the 5 year, the 3 year and finally the 1 year charts...On the 5 and 3 year Chart You will see DELL (long stated as too high of P/E) as a monster performer, followed by AOL, the CSCO, then MSFT....Where you will be amazed is the 1 year Chart....AOL has been performing like DELL over the last year in terms of investment value, in fact AOL has OUTPERFORMED DELL slightly...and WAY OUTPERFORMED MSFT!!!!...... AOL is beginning to look like DELL did when it entered it's Hyper-Growth phase a few years ago...Look at a 10 year chart..DELL didn't start their Hyper-Growth phase for about 4-5 years after they went IPO..Then about 4 or 5 years ago they shot up like a rocket.......AOL began their hypergrowth phase about 1 year ago, after growing sort of slowly it's first few years after it went IPO in 1992...Taking all things into consideration, including the past 1 year investment chart comparison as some proof, and all the fundamental reasons inherent in the sector (Internet) and this company in particular, I fully expect AOL to have DELL-like returns for the next 3-5 years. As an investment forget MSFT and invest in AOL, at least for the next 3-5 years....You'll make a much more OBSCENE amount of money in AOL as you would in MSFT. Regards, George