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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7204)10/28/1998 6:06:00 PM
From: Stitch  Respond to of 10921
 
Zeev,

IDC's latest prognostications:

Message 6197964

Best,
Stitch



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7204)10/29/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Respond to of 10921
 
<<Many of the companies have, however, reduced their "breakeven" point by reacting to sales slumps with head counts reductions>>

I agree. Don't forget there's a downside to downsize, though. While lowering exposure to lower sales, it concurrently limits their sales on the upside. That is, they can't produce as much product and will have to reimplement the lost capacity to grow sales. Cymer is maybe the most unfortunate of them all in this regard, with an enormous ramp-up coming on line around September of last year.

The loss of capital efficiency in downsizing and ramping up is, of course, lost forever i.e. wasted.



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7204)10/31/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Actually Zeev, I wouldn't be surprised to see MU profitable this quarter. Prices are firm, and all wafer starts are now at .21 micron except at the TI fabs. The mystery is how much prices will fall next year and how fast they can convert the TI fabs, and how much TI will hurt them in the meantime.

Carl