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To: Scrapps who wrote (4526)10/29/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Bill  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9236
 
An estimated 94 million PCs will be sold this year worldwide. Let's assume 80% have an internal modem = 75 million. If one third of the modems supported ADSL (wishful thinking I know), that would be 25 million. If AWRE technology was in 60% of these, that's 15 million.

At the service provider end, it is really one for one (not one for 10) because it is a dedicated service, not dial. So if all 15 million new AWRE equipped PC modems were attached to ADSL services, there would need to be at least 15 million DSLAM ports at the pops.

That's a total of 30 million, not including existing PC connection upgrades. So now the question is how much per. $1, $5, $10, what? When you know that, you'll know if this is a good investment.



To: Scrapps who wrote (4526)10/29/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: cape radical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9236
 
you forgot the most pernicious of modem royalty expenses ... the taxman. we also have to sell enough modems to pay him 36% of our operating profit since the market cap is based on after-tax cash flow.