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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7349)	10/29/1998 10:05:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

The Bear Stearns data is misleading because the bourses have fallen so low that it doesn't take uch to give it a large percentage gain. Ex. the hang seng went from 16,000 to roughly 6,000, a 65% drop. Now that its roughly 10,000, every Asia bull is saying 'look, HK is up 50% from its low.' Big deal. Its still down almost 40% from its high. South Korea and Indonesia are even bigger bull---- because those indices have 5% gains & losses with less than 10-15 point moves. Maybe a year from now, with the Moscow index at 100, Lexington Troika Dialog Russia Fund will be able to run those ads again showing a 100% annual return for the fund (because its low recently was around 50 or so)! Now that ain't misleading???!!!!

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7349)	10/29/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: Z268	Respond to of 9980

Robert, Re: Asian equity markets The conventional wisdom is that equity markets are a predictor of economic activity 6-12 months out. Being the eternal optimist that I am, it would seem to me that there are sufficient other signs showing that the recent rise in equity markets may be sustained. IMO, I think Asia has largely progressed beyond the "why oh why?" stage, and are moving on to "let's do something about this" If the current Asian equity market levels can be sustained beyond Q1/99, then we'll se a sustained recovery in Asia. The Templeton Funds specialise in Asia and Latin America. One interesting data point would be whether these Funds have increased their exposure to Asian equities during Sept/Oct. Does anyone have a call on this? Best, Steve