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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (67541)	10/29/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

HL,>>>For comparison purposes, cpq is looking at $1.75 (conservatively) for next year and a 25 P/E would give them a $44 price, a significant bump from $30. See what I mean? <<< No. I mean, I don't see what you mean. I use to view Compaq the way I now view Dell. If I wanted to buy a good quality computer at a reasonable price without having to do rigorous research, I just bought Compaq. Now, I don't have the same perception about Compaq. When I'm buying a computer these days I usually buy Dell - but I would also look at Gateway and Micron Technology and I would skip over Compaq. Besides, Compaq is now in the service business, or systems integration business, having to compete with IBM, Unysis, EDS, Arthur Anderson, and others. But, what does Compaq do really well now? Do they have any technology that they have committment to? In, any case, Intel has a focus, a commanding share of a very important industry going forward, and terrific R&D and so on. We are stuck with a low PE primarily because of the terrific work that Tom Kurlak has been doing to beat down Intel prices. Let's face it, the relationship between the Tom Kurlak Industry and Intel is unique in the annals of business history. Can you name another person that has so relentlessly and successfully beating a company down as Kurlak has with Intel? I can only think of one other example - Ralph Nader and General Motors - but that is an entirely different story. IMO, once Kurlak losses his credibility - Intel PE will go up. Regards, Mary

To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (67541)	10/29/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Harry, re: "See what I mean?" CPQ/INTC valuation I won't try to put numbers on Intel for next year, there are a lot of people better at that than I am. But I will point out why I see their profit picture/PE improving going forward. 1. Cost control - I really like what I heard post-3rd quarter earnings release. They seemed to have lost their financial senses last year, with a huge increase in headcount without the supporting revenue increases. Reading between the lines, I think they have decided to run a lean tight ship. When Intel decides to do something, they generally do it very well. 2. Cost control/improving business conditions - In spite of global financial disruption, we seem to be entering a cylical upturn in computer sales. I suspect this could increase as folks try to solve Y2K worries, and decide it is easier to replace/upgrade than it is to try to fix. Buying a system that is "cerified" Y2K compliant vs. trying to fix a system that may or may not perform; I think a lot of companies may go with what they perceive to be the safest route. 3. Cost control/improving business conditions/product pipeline - The market bets on expectations, and as Merced gets closer (although it seems like it keeps getting farther away), I think there will be a "buzz" and a strong response, if Intel handles the PR correctly it could compare to the Pentium or Win95 release. I think these elements will intensify each other, lowering fixed cost in an increasing revenue situation is magic. Add some new high margin product to the the mix, and the bottom line can be very impressive (note increased margin % in third quarter). As for CPQ, I own some, but I'm not as confident in their ability to execute their business plan. Also I'm not saying that INTC is the BEST stock to own, only that it looks great to me at this point in time, and especially into 4th quarter earnings. As for predictions on next years business conditions, I don't think anyone has a clue. Most of the guru's can't accurately predict next week, I'll pass on their predictions for next year. When revenues are increasing I choose to believe they will continue the trend, until it is proven wrong. I haven't been as optimistic on Intel for years, what I'm hearing, from an investors perspective, is that they have their priorities in order. John