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Non-Tech : Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (438)	10/30/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: wolfdog2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 638

Darlene, usually insider trades that are executed in order to delude "us" are small in dollar amounts. The Ally insiders bought large amounts (over a million dollars worth) over an extended period of time. I think they were deluding themselves. Another example of insiders who made wrong way bets on their company is Amylin (AMLN). The insiders there made truly huge bets that their lead drug, Pramlintide, would fly through P3 trials and get approved by the FDA. Pramlintide flopped in three separate sets of P3 trials and the company's stock has fared just as poorly. The stock which a year ago sold in the low teens can now be had for less than the price of the Wall St. Journal. In fact when I last looked you could buy two shares for the price of the Journal.

To: Ahda who wrote (438)	11/2/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 638

Shorting AMAT again... I got out of AMAT puts in the middle of the big run up in semi-equip stocks. I lost about 30%, my mental "stop" for getting out of an option position. I knew the rise was irrational, but I don't fight the tape and I don't find the fed and I don't fight analysts pounding the table. Espeically when all three events happen at once. The rise in NVLS has been nothing but exasperating (and I lost money on those puts too!). A double in 2 weeks after the company stuffed the channel but "selling" stuff to customers of uncertain ability to pay. Some sanity came back today when Merril Lynch and another brokerage downgraded the smei stocks. In the space of 2 weks, all price targets had been hit, despite DRAM pricing starting to shrink and Taiwan chip foundries (AMATS biggest customer) downgraded their own 1999 earnings prospects. DocStone