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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (25859)	10/30/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Blake, re >Just calling it as I see it...< Sounds reminiscent of another poster we used to have here. What was his name again? Big something, I think. <G> Gottfried

To: blake_paterson who wrote (25859)	10/30/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Blake: A few weeks back on October 8th we saw panic selling in the market and in this group. I said then that there was panic selling. Well, welcome to panic buying yesterday. I telephoned AMAT IR yesterday. They were as bewildered as the rest of the board for the stock price rise. Nothing has changed in their view. Still trolling at the bottom. So these stocks have gotten a little to pumped for my liking and I am playing a short term pull-back in the large cap semi-equips for a trade only. But all I have to do is ask the board one question. Is anyone going long at these prices? The answer would probably be "no." So big mo is pumping these up and I thank them very much. But these can't go to the sky without some fundamental underpinning. They have already discounted a fair part of the recovery without even a turn in orders. Risk / reward is decreasing. They are discounting a "V" recovery probably because they think the crappy BTB is now a contrary indicator of orders to come. I mean, how low can the BTB go before it is of little impact to the market? Everyone knows chips have been and will continue to be in a long term growth phase. But if we begin to see an extended "U" recovery, we will see a pull-back IMO. One more fun fact. What does AMAT and Greenspan have in common? They are both due to report next on November 17th. Keep it in mind.