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To: Dennis who wrote (75905)10/30/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 176387
 
<<are you at all worried about the Forrester report?? They were yapping about it on CNBC today.>>

they've been talking about this for three months or so. it's a contrarian view which, possibly, is getting their firm greater exposure. if you print a view which is similar to all others, you don't sell many reports. if you print a report which is written with some logical credibility and is very contrary to all other views, you get read. one of the top selling books in the 80s was written by an Indian with a title (if i recall) "The Coming Great Crash of 1989".

their view that the PC will become only an extension of the internet, and be a cheap extension at that smacks against a sociological phenomena called privacy/ownership (which may also be a First Principle, i.e., the desire for privacy/ownership is inate - it's not a learned behavior). who would trust the internet to store ALL their personal information - open to the eyes of anyone with code breaking knowledge? if 90% of the people on the planet do NOT want to divulge their personal history to anyone with a key, then you must conclude that each person needs a separate state-of-the-art system capable of mimicing a mainframe. just the opposite of the Forrester report is more likely; systems will continue to advance technologically and INDEPENDENTLY.

if privacy/ownership were not such a strong human desire, then we'd all be content to ride the bus each day. no car for me; a bus will do. the Forrester report is proposing an equivalent system of communication as we've witnessed in transportation; only they're saying that 'mass communication' via the internet (wit 'mass transit') will become the primary means by which we send/receive/store information (wit the only means by which we transport ourselves is in a bus, or through mass transit). it just seems plain pigheaded wrong don't you think? the internet will become a primary means, but, PCs, like cars, will become more complex/beefy through time, not less.