Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Luc Glinas who wrote (7212)	10/31/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

I posted this on Com21, but it's just as appropriate here: << Phone Vs. Cable Modems: Race About To Speed Up Date: 11/2/98 Author: Reinhardt Krause The race between cable TV and phone service companies to sell faster Internet links to consumers is shifting into high gear as both camps rev up for the debut of industry-standard computer modems. The new cable and phone modems will be sold at retail stores and built into PCs starting early next year. But if cable firms and phone companies don't quickly upgrade their systems to handle the new modems, electronics retailers could be turned off. ''Floor space is valuable,'' said Bruce Leichtman, an analyst at Yankee Group in Boston. ''Unless there is widespread availability in the market, it'll be hard for retailers to put high-speed modems on shelves.'' But it may cost cable and phone companies less money to upgrade their networks as the emergence of the new modem standards put more gear suppliers in the market. Early versions of the high-speed modems work only in specific, regional markets. The modems connect only to certain networking gear. The new standards let products from different suppliers work together. In about a year, the rivalry between phone companies and cable firms should be in full swing, say industry executives and analysts. And billions of dollars in modem and service revenue are at stake. Both camps aim to sell their retail modem models for less than $250 by late '99. Cable modem service now goes for about $40 a month, with high-speed phone lines about $15 higher. ''Cable has been out of the blocks first, but I'm not sure who will reach the finish line first,'' said Holland Wood, broadband product marketing manager at Intel Corp. ''You're going to see a pretty good kick by the (phone companies).'' Intel has worked with both sides to set technical standards. The chipmaker's goal is to spur PC sales. Faster Internet links will boost PC sales. Cable modems send data about 50 times faster than normal, analog phone modems. Phone companies are pushing new digital modems that are about 25 times faster than analog. Speed and cost aside, availability is the biggest issue. The new phone and cable modems only work in areas where providers have upgraded their networks. ''When consumers walk into a store, they have to know if their home (can) receive the service,'' said Michael Harris, president of market researcher Kinetic Strategies Inc. ''It's really a huge issue.'' Cable firms and phone companies plan to work closely with retail stores and PC makers. They don't want consumers miffed if they've bought a new modem and then can't receive the service. Look for retail outlets to provide color-coded maps so consumers can determine where the high-speed phone or cable Internet access is available. ''We're working as an industry to make sure our databases are linked,'' said Bob Cruickshank, vice president of technology program management at cable modem service Road Runner. Time Warner Inc. and MediaOne Group Inc. own Road Runner. Its main rival is Redwood City, Calif.-based AtHome Corp. In July, AtHome and PC maker Dell Computer Corp. signed a marketing pact. Dell rival Compaq Computer Corp. also is working closely with cable firms and phone companies. ''We think getting more Internet bandwidth to homes will spur some added growth in the computer industry,'' said Fred Von Oldenburg, Compaq's broadband strategy manager. Though cable and phone firms are upgrading their systems, it might be three years or so before the new high-speed modems can be used widely, analysts say. ''Part one is getting the (end-user) modems to be consistent,'' said Von Oldenburg. The standards will see to that, but ''the second part is getting network equipment to be consistent with the modems.'' One problem is that the upgrades that have already taken place -by both phone and cable companies -might not agree with the new standards. About one-fifth of the cable systems in the U.S. will be upgraded to high-speed networks by year-end. But unless new gear is installed, those systems won't work with new modems supporting the new cable modem standard. That standard is called Data Over Cable Systems Interface Specification, or DOCSIS. It's uncertain how much it will cost to upgrade cable systems to DOCSIS. But the standard will result in more suppliers and lower prices, says Randy Battat, head of Motorola Inc.'s Internet and networking group. Motorola is the leading supplier of cable modems. Next week, it's hosting an industry meeting on selling modems at retail. Rivals entering the market include networking leaders Cisco Systems Inc. and 3Com Corp. Phone companies are looking at many of the same issues as the cable guys. To offer high- speed modem services, they must install new gear in central offices that route phone calls through neighborhoods. Led by US West Inc., a few phone companies started rolling out asymmetrical digital subscriber line technology in late '97. ADSL -often referred to as DSL - works over regular copper wiring. It lets users access the Web about 25 times faster than do analog phone modems. US West has rolled out DSL services in 40 markets in its 14-state region. Bell Atlantic Corp. and Ameritech Corp. also have rolled out limited DSL service. But phone companies will have to adapt networks to a technology called universal ADSL. The new standard should lower modem prices, says Intel's Wood. He says price will actually be more important to most consumers than a modem that works anywhere. >>> As for earnings expectations, I would imagine if the company is going to warn, they'll do it soon. The last I heard the numbers were still "do-able," but I'll feel better when I know they're in the bag. Later -- Pat