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To: blake_paterson who wrote (9068)	11/1/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

(OT) I read that article, and wonder if anyone knows any url where I can monitor that spread... "One ominous sign is the persistent anomalies in capital markets. Consider a gauge that Greenspan watches: the difference in yield between the most recently issued 30-year Treasury bond and the ''off-the-run'' bond, or those issued just months before. Typically, off-the-run bonds yield 5 basis points more than new issues. But in the credit-market panic after Russia's default, that premium shot up to 34 basis points, as traders refused to hold anything but the most liquid securities. The premium has narrowed a bit, to 18 basis points. But Greenspan figures the markets can't be deemed healthy until the off-the-run spread is back around the normal 5-point premium." Thanks in advance.

To: blake_paterson who wrote (9068)	11/2/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Blake, I follow Fed meeting dates and G7 meeting dates very carefully. The results of these outside influences cause very short term dramatic swings in the market way beyond which "fundamentals" can do. Inveritably they are "storms in tea cups" But with a little astuteness one can make benefit of them. OK so at the next forum, 0,25% is a given, and 0,5% is expected. At 0,25 the market will tank, at 0,50 we may expect a warm feeling (+200) My take is that Alan G. is conservative, and that 0,25% is all we can expect. THINK : If he gives 0,50% in November, all and sundry will be waiting cap in hand at the next round expecting more. The German Gvnt. has already indicated a cut in interest rates, which is OK, Asian rates are low anyway, but it will be dangerous for the FED to enter into a deflanationary rat-race, despite the (relative) gripes from the street at home. So I see 0,25% this month at best, and zilch as worst case My 2 cents worth Alan