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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7227)	11/1/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, thanks for your thoughts. Here's another chart showing orders and shipments as well as btb. Note that each month (around the 20th) a new number from SEMI is added and two previous numbers change slightly. SEMI numbers are not frozen until 3 months later. geocities.com I usually post on the AMAT thread when the charts changes and will try to keep the URL the same. Gottfried

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7227)	11/1/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hello Jess (re: BTB): I've been kicking this dog (issue) incessantly for the past 2 weeks, so I thought I'd chime in :) Posted this on the AMAT thread this PM: <<G: Spent some time today pondering the 2nd derivative of the BTB slope question that was posed on the Blood thread. Looking at KLAC, the last upturn (Oct - Dec 96)came after billings were increasing and BTB was >1. So both first and second order equations were positive when the stock price jumped. Didn't have a chance to look at AMAT, but my mind (fuzzy as it is) recalls the same. Not that history is supposed to repeat itself, but.... BP>> If you look at the September numbers, the data to support your conclusion is "grayer." For front end orders, one could suggest that the 2nd order derivative has not quite reached an inflection point yet. All of this in dramatic contradistinction to the last go around. Missed them in the 20's and wondering about the 30's... Regards, BP