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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (986)	11/2/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Paul - don't you think Japanese exporters are hedged against currency fluctuations? E

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (986)	11/2/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Paul, Some time back [6 months+], Sony's chairman made a very public statement about the Japanese governments non-action and how this harmful period of 8 years had devastated the corporate structure of Japan's economy. Also, how the bureaucrats were not supporting the industrial segments of the exporting economy..... Just the opposite....they were self-preservationist and were close to abnegating their responsibilities. He was realy unhappy. I think they are still frozen in the system they created... How they could have kept this from the world is a remarkable testament to their closed system of financial intimacy. What effect the implosion in Asian economies and what effects the resulting deflationary pressures will have on Chinese, western and south American economies is still being decided. What will 1% growth if any for the next 5 years do to these markets... That will be a new experience for these young stock market players? But, I think the Big Bears are still wrong.... No catastrophic wipe-out. But a muddle through atmosphere and markets here in the USA bouncing around a trading range....say between 6-9000. Europe will probably do the same with declining growth and internalization of the ECU. The will of the G 7 has been galvanized...and they understand better then ever....this new strange financial interconnectedness. In this remarkable 25 year experiment. I suspect we are looking at 5 year period of flat markets, lower growth and continued effort to restructure the worlds financial systems into a less chaotic venue. [I expect Henry's world of currency trading and derivatives will recieve more regulation.] But this sunny scenario is dependent on these powers-that-be remaining able to keep the systems in place functioning on the surface. Todays ludicrous stock purchases just might be these young managers attempting to save their portfolio and jobs before the end of the year. 5%+ is a lot better then 20% minus. Another thought.....most of these young players have come to believe something will always bail them out...a Greenspan move....a positive blessing from congresses....G 7 - IMF intervention....what ever it takes will be just around the corner. Cinderella Like biz.yahoo.com Chip