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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (4308)	11/2/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7342

jhg, I view any stock purchase of CIEN at these levels pure speculation. My guess is that CIEN is not in play for the reasons that Birck outlined in his recent interview. Basically, the company's earnings outlook for the immediate future are not all that great, it has only a few customers, and there seems to be some question in the minds of certain engineering people as to whether Ciena's technology really is all that great (I don't know, and am not offering an opinion). So a viable price would need to be set at a lot closer to $10 per share to avoid major dilution problems. I doubt that Nettles and the rest of management would buy into that. But if it's technology that a suitor is after (as opposed to buying management and calling it 'synergy'), it would seem to me that a hostile takeover could work in the $12/share range, and this would avoid much of the dilutive aspects typical of one of these friendly mergers (which mainly reward entrenched management). But first the speculative fever needs to be washed out. Speculation is the only thing driving Ciena, so I think it would be a terrific short candidate. TTFN, CTC