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To: Gary Walker who wrote (24220)	11/2/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: JBL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Gary, I think the party is already over... Chip equipment makers were downgraded today and signs of cuts in capital spending are surfacing rapidly and will become impossible to ignore. A crash in US markets would be so disastrous at this point that all sort of promises will be made (with taxpayers money) to keep the financial system afloat. (The bubble is no longer inflating, it is being prevented from deflating too rapidly.) The scenario I see is a gradual move back to value over a period of a few months (accelerating after 4Q earnings are in). Internet stocks with questionable valuations will be trashed. (Stocks from large oil companies should be very good buys a few months from now.)

To: Gary Walker who wrote (24220)	11/2/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Jay8088	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Gary Walker <<A strong global rally will ignite Wall Street even further....there's lots of room on the global upside after years of downside...>> I doubt that the Fed's easy money policy (and stock market manipulation ) would cure worldwide over capacity and structural problems of emerging economies. What we are seeing right now is the short covering rally after a depth of pessimism and panic. The real problems have hardly been solved yet. As it stands now, the emerging economies are still contracting and are too poor to import from US. OTOH, they are dumping their low priced goods to US to pay off their huge debts. US corporate earnings would be poor next year due to this lopsided trade picture. Have we really seen the bottom and are ready to build the bubble again? Count me as a skeptic.