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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Pilorusso who wrote (5047)	11/2/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Bill, Three things have probably contributed to the sharp run up in CIEN the past two days. One, takeover speculation. Two, rumors of the new contract. Three, the generally positive stock market. Nobody knows for sure what percentage each of these has contributed to the rise, but I'm betting that most of it is due to the takeover rumor. A new contract with Bell South does not justify $1 billion in additional market capitalization ($10 per share rise x 103 million shares outstanding). We should assume that the contract is already discounted anyway, so buy the rumor, sell the news will probably occur if the increase is due to that. The only thing that will make this stock go higher is if the rumor of the takeover continues. There's no way in my mind that the Bell South contract can justify this much of a run up. If the takeover doesn't occur in a day or two, I think the stock will be down significantly from where it is. All IMO. Dan