Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: put2rich who wrote (15007)	11/3/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Fred Puppet	Respond to of 18691

U.S. savings rate hits lowest level since 1930s WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The savings rate of U.S. consumers in September plunged to a negative level for the first time in 60 years as Americans spent heartily despite only modest growth in their paychecks ...boring stuff... The savings rate -- the portion of after-tax dollars left over after spending -- fell to -0.2 percent, the first negative monthly savings rate since the department began reporting the figures on a monthly basis in 1959. Prior to that, figures were calculated quarterly and the last time there was a negative savings rate was in 1938, when the rate was -2.1 percent, a department official said. The boring stuff says that although paychecks were up a little, spending was up a lot. I feel bad for the American people. They are living the high life now, spending more than they earn during an economic boom. Some day we will hit an economic recession and paychecks will go down, but by that time the people will have forgotten how to be frugal. They will keep spending until they are all bankrupt, and then it will really hurt (them). Shorts, on the other hand, will be dancing in the streets.

To: put2rich who wrote (15007)	11/4/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

<Which are the best long term and 'safe' shorts?> Thanh, My favorite short is WMT. At $ 70 it's only 3% off its all time high of $ 72 set back in July. The stock has doubled in the last year and it's trading with a PE in the high 30's. It's growth rate is around 12% with future growth expansion hinging on Asian and SA expansion. With the Asian and SA markets in dire straits, I don't see much growth coming from those parts of the world. Also, with a savings rate of -.2% once the US sheeple get whacked by that 2 x 4 reality board they're going to start cutting back on their spending. I can see WMT trading at $ 30 by the end of next year.