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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxwell who wrote (40719)	11/3/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 1573201

<Looking into 1999, the Company's product road map remains on schedule. We expect AMD to introduce the 450 MHz version of the K6-2 microprocessor in 1Q 1999, the K6-3 in 2Q 1999, and the K7 in 1H 1999.> The K6-3 on schedule in Q2? Wasn't the K6-3 supposed to be released in Q1? Either the analyst's data is dead wrong, or someone here is pulling a Clinton. And if the K6-3 is truly coming out in Q2, while the K7 is scheduled for 1H, then AMD could have quite a mess on their hands if by some remote chance the K7 is released before K6-3. <We expect unit shipments of microprocessors to continue to grow over the next five quarters. Specifically, we forecast 4.7 million units of the K6 to ship in 4Q 1998 and 20 million K6 units to ship in 1999. In addition, we believe the Company will ship 2 million units of the K7 in 1999.> Well, that translates to 5 million K6 units per quarter in 1999, assuming production stays the same. Gee, some people told me that AMD wasn't capacity-constrained without Dresden. If quarterly production is going to hit 4.7 million this quarter, and AMD has the capacity to go up to 10 million per quarter, then once again this analyst is dead wrong. Or once again someone could be pulling a Clinton. On the other hand, the ramp up to 2 million units of K7 in 1999 will be quite a feat, unless this is exactly where AMD is dedicating all their "extra capacity". In that view, it would make sense for AMD to bet the entire farm on the K7, knowing that this could be where the big bucks lie. After all, Jerry Sanders sure fits the personality of a big-time gambler. Tenchusatsu

To: Maxwell who wrote (40719)	11/3/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Joey Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573201

Maxwell, thanks for the details regarding A. Brown upgrade. 2 things struck me: 1). K6-3 slipped until Q2??? 2). As for risks, they don't even mention Intel response to the low-end!!! What happens when Celeron gets bumped up to 400+ earlier than expected??? I've also been hearing Intel has a few suprise announcements at Comdex regarding their product mix for early '99. joey

To: Maxwell who wrote (40719)	11/3/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573201

re: Alex Brown Upgrade Maxwell, in fact I ran the assumptions by Alex Brown thru my numer-meatgrinder and found out this: if they ship 4.7 million with ASP $100, their estimate ($0.15) is quite conservative - try it out Yourself. Letting SGAA, R&D, INTEREST expenses unchanged I arrived at 0.22 per share, so they have some cushion in their prognosis. However if AMD could achieve an $150 ASP shippint 4.7 million units, that would propel them to $0,80 EPS for Q4. However if they shipped 7 million units with $100 ASP, they could earn $0,85 also. Last but not least, 7 million units with $150 ASP would provide $1,70. all numbers for Q4. All numbers with a "ceteris paribus" attached, that means SGAA (Advertising, marketing) and R&D spending unchanged, interest expenses unchanged. Highly unlikely, so get some net $$$ off my calculations... Must admit, AMD looks even better to me with those numbers.. HEHE... best wishes for AMD and those elections <g> CROSSY

To: Maxwell who wrote (40719)	11/4/1998 12:12:00 AM
From: Maxwell	Respond to of 1573201

Let the AMD Q4 EPS Competition Begins: Last Q3 we had a great turn out for the AMD Q3 EPS Competition. The consensus of all the participants ACCURATELY PREDICTED an EPS= $0.01 and estimated revenue that is only $13M off the actual value ($673M versus $686M). In Q4, AMD will be one of the few companies that will record susbstantial growth than the rest of the semiconductor industry. The cause is due to the strong demand of the K6/K6-2 CPUs. This will translate to substantially increase in profit. Thus I would like everyone to participate to see what are our expectations of AMD. Please submit your 1) Q4 Revenue 2) Q4 EPS 3) # of K6/K6-2 sold 4) ASP of CPU to maxwell_jr@hotmail.com. As the quarter progresses you can change your estimation if you like. Just e-mail me. Here are the first few estimates. Thank you. Name Q4 Revenue EPS # K6/K6-2 Sold ASP (Millions) ($) (M) ($) Maxwell $852 $0.44 5.3 100 Alex Brown $770 $0.15 4.7 100 Needham & Co. $772 $0.06 4.5 97 Average $798 $0.22 4.83 $99.00 Deviation $47 $0.20 0.42 $1.73 Maxwell