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To: RGinPG who wrote (31417)	11/3/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Redman	Respond to of 95453

What we need are favorable API numbers to put more strength in the rally that has lasted for over two weeks now. A nice draw in crude inventories and heating oil inventories would really make this sector take off. red

To: RGinPG who wrote (31417)	11/3/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Jamey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

It could very well be that we are on the next leg of a major bull market, provided that Japan continues to pull out of its recession and Russia and Brazil get IMF money. If this happens and the OPEC majors continue to cut production we will be in the clear, IMO. Of course, all eyes are on the Middle East and Saddam. If he remains obstinate, Clinton has no options other than to pull the trigger on our cruise missles. These things are so accurate they can hit a target within one yard accuracy. We don't have to commit trops in harm's way. It is a shame that the Iraqi people have to suffer for one man's atrocities though. You have a great site. I can tell a lot of work went into it. Santiago

To: RGinPG who wrote (31417)	11/3/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

RonGinPG - nothing wrong with being conservative/ history has taught us that we need to be here... you just may have won the - ''name that tune'' game, but.... It's just that the things looming on the horizon that can take this sector down; are all much more likely to steadilly improve or actually be good news and add fuel to the fire imho. I think the OSX is poised to move against the grain (total market) if we get good Crude news and I think we will - soon. OPEC will do the right thing; they have come this far; why quit, or not just tighten the belt one more notch - when they are this close... Supply numbers have a big lag from reporting dates - I expect good news this time; let alone factoring in the discrepancy between the 2 agencies #'s... OPEC just met in So Africa; Major Intl Oil just met --- too many meetings, too much pain, with too much power; not to turn this thing around... Fed will cut Rates again and the International community is cutting as well. Still lots of cash not yet in play - it will need somewhere to go... Japan is showing the early indicators of turning the corner as well and appears willing to swallow the medicine in Banking Reform. Crude is going into the traditional ''upswing season'' - psychological or fundamental - doesn't matter; Cold weather & Winter is a factor on Crude prices... No reason to expect a spike up here; but good reason to confidently buy on retractions here; as this may be the last major buying opportunity at these levels. Come Jan & Feb - I expect a move just like last year... again; can't buy 'em cheap; when fundamentals are strong...

To: RGinPG who wrote (31417)	11/3/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron I share your short-term bearish outlook on this sector since I still believe we are tied to oil prices and they are currently moribund at best. I do have a problem with all the estimate decreases, especially those well into the future. I just think it's impossible to make estimate changes without also estimating where oil prices will be well into the future. My best guess would be that in the usual "cover your ass" Wall St. mentality, they are estimating future oil prices to remain close to current levels. The oil bidness is so vast and so complex with prices being affected by many different socio-economic and political factors, that future oil price estimates are nothing more than wild-ass guesses. There is also all the force majeure factors like hurricanes and La Nina winters. If an Arctic storm sweeps down thru the upper Midwest, watch oil spike and everyone talking about the La Nina effect. I prefer to try to read oil prices thru history and the history of the previous twenty years says that oil prices have spent a small percentage of that time below $15.00. If oil climbs to historical levels by next spring, watch those estimates move up rather than down. John