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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (2026)	11/3/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81275

Can the dollar drop and gold drop, too? I guess we'll find out. Tuesday November 3, 6:39 pm Eastern Time INSIGHT -- Dollar/mark tired after upside probe NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The dollar moved with trepidation toward last week's high at 1.6670 marks as analysts said the three-week uptrend was poised for reversal and the dollar was preparing a retest of October's 20-month lows. ''I think we have a ceiling (at 1.6660-70). We'd have a three-week corrective leg complete and I'm looking for another three to four weeks lower,'' said Mark Roberts of I.D.E.A. Even if Tuesday's upmove shattered the 1.6670 mark level, analysts said a shield of resistances above 1.67 would hinder the rally. The 38.2-percent Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.8135 in August to 1.5870 in October comes in at 1.6740. The first signal that that move lower is in progress would be a loss of the last reaction low at 1.6555, Roberts said. Roman Dutkewych, technical analyst at Lehman Brothers, said a falling 40-day dollar/mark moving average at 1.6594 could contain the pair today, despite it bumping up against that level at midsession. A rising wedge pattern also presented a bearish scenario, he said. ''It's a continuation pattern that should eventually break to the downside. If the bottom of the pattern at (1.6475) breaks, then the measure of that pattern is for a marginal new low below the October 8 low, something like 1.5860,'' he said. The pattern will break sooner on a close below the overnight low of 1.6530-35, he said. Conversely, a close above the 40-day moving average could signal another shot at 1.6670. Amid the bearish dollar/mark outlook, analysts also saw mark/yen consolidating lower after its break from a triangle pattern last week at 70.10-20. Mark/yen rebounded from a fresh 8-month low at 69.08 in New York but the rise failed to negate technical objectives near 68. ''I suspect we haven't seen the lows yet ... we've set new lows since the (outside reversal week of October 5) so the bias on a longer-term is still negative,'' Dutkewych said. In dollar/yen, Roberts said the downward acceleration will likely increase by Thursday when the pair should test 112, on its way to eventually breaking the 111.53 October 8 low. ''There's a little support at 114.35 but I'm looking for that to give way to a fairly sharp downmove,'' Roberts said. ''I'd be surprised to see it get above 115.75 from here.'' In early afternoon trading, the dollar was modestly higher at 115.32/42 yen from 114.95/00 at the open and lower at 1.6600/10 marks from 1.6630/40. Mark/yen stood around 69.50, up from Tuesday's eight-month low of 69.08.