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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (25946)	11/3/1998 3:43:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, . The bottom in revenue is much more likely to be U-shaped than V-shaped, This is the consensus on WS I believe. But IMO, it's very unlikely that we have a gradual move up from the extremely depressed 400M month just passed. What are your thoughts as to a V-shaped recovery starting mid 99? Additionally, once INTC begins their migration to .18 in earnest, won't other chipmakers in fact be forced to follow? And if this is the case, AMAT and the other suppliers may not have enough capacity following the recent restructurings. Are we likely to see long waiting lists for equipment as we head into 2000 and possibly a Gold-Rush type scurry for equipment by the chipmakers? TIA, Brian Some good news for once for those who are long: Chip Industry Shows Unusual Uptick techweb.com

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (25946)	11/4/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: Stefan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

You might be wrong just read on... A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted 7:30 a.m. EDT/4:30 a.m. PDT, 11/3/98 Report says chip recovery now more than seasonal uptick By J. Robert Lineback SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Worldwide semiconductor sales are increasing at a much stronger rate than typically seen at this time of year, according new market data released today by IC Insights Inc. The research firm said the high month-to-month growth rates from July to September indicate that the current uptick in chip sales is much more than a seasonal increase and it provides more evidence that the next boom period has begun. IC Insights said total chip revenues exceeded $12 billion in September, up from the recession's low point of $8.95 billion in July. Using a three-month rolling average, the Scottsdale market researcher concluded that semiconductor sales in September were 4.3% higher than they were in August. During the 1990s, the average increase has been 2.3% between September and August, according to IC Insights. "The IC industry is currently in the embryonic stage of the next boom period," concluded analyst Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, which drew a skeptical reaction in August when it predicted an end to the industry's three-year slump (see Aug. 6 story). Most market researchers and industry managers agree that chip sales have picked up since July, but many are still waiting to see if the increase will hold through the first quarter of 1999. IC Insights, however, is declaring that the full recovery has begun, and it is forecasting modest sales growth in 1999 at 10%, following by 24% in 2000 and 30% in 2001. Using a three-month rolling average, IC Insights said chip sales worldwide totaled $10.24 billion in September compared to $9.82 billion in August. IC Insights said semiconductor sales in the Americas increased to $3.49 billion in September from $3.31 billion in August. In Europe, sales grew to $2.37 billion in September from $2.24 billion, and Japan's chip revenues slightly increased to $2.03 billion from $2.004 billion in August, according to the report. Chip shipments in the Asia/Pacific region grew to $2.36 billion from $2.26 billion, said IC Insights. Compared to a year ago, chip sales in September were lower--$10.24 billion vs. $11.83 billion in September 1997, said the research firm. However, IC Insights said the month-to-month comparison was more important in determining the market's performance in future. In addition to the current increase in chip sales, IC Insights said it anticipates that concerns about the Y2K problem--or the year 2000 software bug--will begin to have a positive impact on electronic equipment sales beginning next year. If Y2K mandated purchases of new electronic equipment becomes a significant factor, it will result in additional electronic equipment and semiconductor sales increases beyond the above forecast for the year 2000 and 2001, IC Insights said.