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To: Scumbria who wrote (67774)	11/3/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

Scumbria, re: Expectations: "Quite the contrary" "If AMD generates $.02 per share profit, their profits have doubled and their stock will rise." Really, their stock WILL RISE? We will see, maybe. Then again, maybe AMD will lose 1 cent per share. Or 10 cents per share. I doubt we will get that kind of percentage surprise from Intel. Good luck, but I think the expectations are probably more correct than your optimism. John

To: Scumbria who wrote (67774)	11/3/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: exhon2004	Respond to of 186894

Scumbria: re <<If AMD generates $.02 per share profit, their profits have doubled and their stock will rise.>> Do you really believe AMD shareholders are looking long term for profits in the .01 to .02 range. At that rate it could take until the next millenium, (the one after 2001), for AMD to recover what it has lost in the past couple of years. You value investors out there have got to love the resulting PE.

To: Scumbria who wrote (67774)	11/3/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: AMD and Intel Stock Price Scumbria, I think you are very wrong. AMD is selling at 2275 x last quarter's earnings. This is a very ambitious multiple for such a debt laden stock to carry. I think if AMD doubles its earnings to $.02/share next quarter it will not so much fall as plummet to a reasonable multiple of 20, i.e. a price of $.40/share which would put it below liquidation. That will not do. To keep the price from falling, we need at least $2/yr and fast.It is possible if K-7 makes it. Intel is in a completely different situation. It has made $133 million on its investment in MU in a couple of weeks. Cash is king. Wouldn't it be nice if AMD had some? Intel stockholders face the same choices any other stockholder faces -- if they don't like it, they can get out, but, unlike AMD, if they are long-term holders they can get out at a profit. Everyone knows that gross margins of 60 or 50% are a some-time thing, and no reasonable person expects them to persist. The amazing thing is that no competitor has been able to do much about it. AMD has been drawn into a border skirmish and it is losing all of its cash. It seems to winning the skirmish, but meanwhile, Intel is sweeping all before it unopposed on the big battlefields. Margins on Xeon are 90%, and on Celeron 40%. Intel has plenty of cash. AMD little. Everyone ready for the next campaign?

To: Scumbria who wrote (67774)	11/3/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: exhon2004	Respond to of 186894

Scumbria: You seem to have tremendous confidence in Jerry. But then again Jerry is a confidence man isn't he?

To: Scumbria who wrote (67774)	11/3/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Scumbria, >>>Quite the contrary. If AMD generates $.02 per share profit, their profits have doubled and their stock will rise. Intel on the other hand has to generate obscene profits just to keep the stock at a steady price.<<< I think I'm beginning to get it. It's David vs. Goliath, Padres vs. Yankees, Clay vs. Liston, Broncos vs. Packers, Slippery Rock vs. Notre Dame, Netscape vs. Microsoft, etc. There is a certain contingency (where'd that word come from tonight?) that loves to hate the overwhelming favorite and will even put a lot of money on the little guy. Two cents a share, up from one...I guess something was lost on me. Tony