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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (7786)	11/4/1998 6:18:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 44573

<I don't know what you're seeing > Sure, drag me back into this. What it is telling me is that there is an uptrending channel between 1064 (during the summer) and 1482 (two and a half months later). I cannot tell what the slope of the line is, but it looks like for every unit change in the x-axis there is a 1.9 change in the y-axis so the line moves up 1.9 NDX points a day. (about). So it tells me that the market is trending up and as long as it stays between those lines it's not breaking out in a blowoff top config and not breaking down. It's telling me that 100 trading days from the low, the upper and lower tines will be about 1920 and 1250 and if the market is still between those tines it's still trending upward. It tells me that the middle tine is 50% of the way between the Upper and Lower tines and the market will normally stay between the Upper and Middle and suggest a more bullish posture, or between the Middle and Lower Tines which would suggest a more cautious posture. I would expect to view those external tines as some rough concept of Support and Resistance yet not expect a minor penetration of those lines to be fatal nor a signal of a major breakout. Now, the things are almost 700 points apart. Where is the NDX, 1400? But forget that part of it. (gee, the spoo is flying tonight. If Tom were awake he could almost get his 45 points) What I think I see in it is that if it gets to one of the external tines and it goes through, it's still uncertain to the analyst whether it's breaking down or not. It's a warning signal, true. But it isn't until it has broke down (in the case of penetrating the Lower Tine) or come back into the channel that the analyst knows ... so it lags because although the analyst has warning of a potential break, in and of itself it won't tell you whether the market should be purchased or sold. Be that as it may. A good analyst will look for other things to make his or her decision. Meanwhile, what do we do while it is floating in this almost 700 point range, a range the line should be in during probably greater than 3 sigma of the time? We know normally it should oscillate somewhat in the range between the Main Tine and an outer one. But that's almost a 350 point range. Now that's excellent to know for GZ. Because he will hold positions into the next millennium. I imagine there is a way to create a fork within a greater fork. A fork within that as well. I guess that would provide us with slow but reasonably good shorter term instruments for trading. Looking at the "Main" fork though isn't defined well enough for people who trade over shorter time frames I don't think. Which brings me to trying it on intraday....----Damn, the spoo is at 1125.40; someone wake up Tom----....Um, I looked at it on 45 minute bars and literally ran out of screen on Ensign's Vista. The Mac software isn't up right now. I can get more plots because the Mac can draw a chart from one end of a 20" Raster Ops to the opposite end of a 17" AppleVision. But I did not think of that earlier. Perhaps sometime during the day I'll give it a whirl.