OT> By 2001, cable modems will emerge as the dominant Internet-access technology," Lippis said. "I'm less bullish with ADSL because of my prior experience with ISDN
it's adsl vs. cable modems November 11, 1998 ELECTRONIC BUYERS NEWS Silicon Valley- Chip makers and OEMs are raising the stakes in the battle to bring higher-speed Internet access to homes and offices, as they ready products based on competing technologies.
At the Embedded Systems Conference in San Jose last week, Cisco Systems Inc. and Hitachi Semiconductor (America) Inc. moved to bring a new class of voice-enabled cable-modem products to the masses. The two companies have co-developed a reference design board for resale to OEMs.
The design is based on Hitachi's RISC chip. Cisco, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Sony Corp., and others will use this technology to develop and ship cable modems with voice-over-IP functionality in early 1999.
At the Comdex show in Las Vegas next week, other companies will push the competing broadband technology, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL). PC-Tel, Texas Instruments, and Virata will show new DSL chips, while Taiwan's modem giants will give OEMs a sneak preview of their first DSL products.
The real winner? Neither, for now.
"The traditional analog modem will still be around for a long time, maybe two or three more years," said Shannon Pleasant, an analyst at In-Stat Inc., Scottsdale, Ariz.
Because of the costs and technical problems associated with today's telecommunications infrastructure, cable modems and DSL technologies won't begin to make noticeable inroads until 2000, according to analyst Nicholas Lippis of Strategic Networks Inc., a market research firm based in Rockland, Mass.
"By 2001, cable modems will emerge as the dominant Internet-access technology," Lippis said. "I'm less bullish with ADSL because of my prior experience with ISDN."
Total analog-modem shipments will reach 72 million to 75 million units by 2000, he said. The cable-modem market is expected to increase from 500,000 units shipped this year to about 1.6 million by 2000; at that time, ADSL modem shipments are projected to hit 600,000 units, Lippis added.
Cisco agreed, to some extent. "The cable modem has moved into the lead as a result of the standardization of the technology, but ADSL is not standing still," said Steven Sneddon, director of global alliances at Cisco, San Jose. "Frankly, we don't care if the world moves toward DSL or cable. "
That's because Cisco fields products in both the cable-modem and DSL camps. The cable-modem design backed by Cisco and Hitachi is based on Hitachi's SH3-DSP, a chip that combines a RISC microprocessor and a DSP.
Built around Hitachi's 133-MHz SH3 microprocessor, the board could serve as a reference platform for both cable and DSL modems.
The cable modem isn't the only game in town, however.
"I believe that cable modems have more subscribers [than DSL], but both technologies will coexist in the long term," said James Collinge, marketing manager at Texas Instruments, Dallas.
At Comdex, TI will roll out three DSL chip products, marking its entry into the very-high-bit-rate (VDSL) market; VDSL technology enables Internet access at up to 25 Mbits/s. In addition, TI will show its next-generation ADSL/G.Lite chipset for modems and central offices, dubbed the TNETD3000.
Also at Comdex, Milpitas, Calif.-based PC-Tel will show the world's first software-modem IC for use in DSL modems.
And Virata's software-manufacturing subsidiary, Raleigh, N.C.-based RSA Communications Inc., will announce plans to license its G.Lite software technology to OEMs.
Finally, Taiwan's modem makers, which in total are the world's largest manufacturers of these products, will roll out a slew of systems at Comdex. "Interoperability is still an issue in the DSL market," warned Kevin Ko, depu-ty manager of sales at Taipei-based Askey Com- puter Corp., one of the world's largest modem makers, which will show an ADSL product at Comdex. " Because this is still an issue, I do not believe that the DSL market will mature before the year 2000."
Copyright c 1998 CMP Media Inc.
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