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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (24524)	11/5/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Capt Ron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

JDN Well said, Living in Miami, I get enough of this b.s. on a daily basis without having it here also. Thank you for telling it like it is. Ron P.S. Did the storm hurt you?

To: JDN who wrote (24524)	11/7/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: Richard S. Schoenstadt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

Dear JDN, I am not a short - if that's what you are implying. And it really wouldn't make any difference if I was. Shorts are longs best friends and vice versa - anyone who doesn't understand that is flying blind and leading the blind. With respect to the cc, I did not listen to it. I just read part of it now and see that you are correct about the taxes. This is obviously important in the short run. (You might want to explain how the tax loss carry over will be applied. For example against the total earnings - in which case it will go relatively quickly - or against the amount due. I assume the latter in which case it should last for quite a while - 4 or 5 quarters if your 9 million figure is correct.) As far as lying goes (if that's what you are implying) I'll be more than happy to stack my analysis of Tava against yours. You have consistently over estimated Tava's potential and you are doing it again in my opinion. The record is there that I have consistently provided fair and relatively accurate assessments of Tava's potential - my only fault is that I have been too generous and constantly overestimated their potential. Anyone need only go back to the summer and check out my estimate of Tava's revenues and earnings and yours to see that this is true and to decide who is more reliable when it comes to assessing Tava's potential. Your problem IMO is that you take everything that Tava says at face value. And you ignore the obvious - like for instance Tava's revenue potential is limited by number of employees. Or that year 2k product revenue was down this past quarter when it should be exploding. And that these potential new revenue sources may just be to replace work that is being done or eventually year 2k work not in addition to. If Tava ever finally surprises me to the upside, I'll admit I'm wrong. So far they haven't. It does seem clear however that Tava should do very well for the next few quarters. I would expect maybe .20 eps but do not believe they will be making the .25 predicted for qtr 2 nor the .33 predicted for qtr. 3. This ought to support the stock price and I would expect drive it higher - assuming the market maintains it's current bullish psychology. The one absolute positive for Tava is it's improving balance sheet. This is very important and should add some premium to the stock price beyond it's earnings potential. However the case for Tava post year 2k is very simple. It comes to bloated share count and margins. The bloated share count is going to act as a permanent anchor on Tava's earnings. And I don't think Tava is going to make very high net margins. Rick Bulotta thinks they can make 10%. If they can then things will probably be ok. I don't think they can. I doubt they can make 5%. They have no history of making money in their core business and until they prove otherwise, investing in their post year 2k business is nothing but a bet. I estimate that Tava's revenues will be around 25 to 26 million next qtr. (Assuming 630 employees.) If Tava can take in only 100 million or so a year when it includes inflated year 2k rates and products, then I doubt they will exceed revenues of 100 million post year 2k - with the current work force anyway. If they make 5% net margins, that's about 5 million profit or roughly .20 eps per year assuming a diluted share count of around 25 million. Figure a pe of 20 and you have a $4 stock. Figure a pe of 15 and you have $3 stock. Yes Tava might get better margins or they may continue to grow and increase revenues. At the same time their margins could easily be worse. Last about this board. This is a stock discussion board not a stock promotion board. It's service is to provide information pro and con to anyone who is risking or considering risking their money by investing in Tava. It is not just for those who have a positive view of Tava. IMO complacency and wishful thinking generated by greed are an investors 2 biggest enemies. You should welcome critics and shorts - as a way to test your views which may be infected by those two mental states - not chase them away. Unless of course you are trying to manipulate people. RS