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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (31523)	11/5/1998 4:13:00 PM
From: Redman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

This de-coupling of the price of oil and oil service stocks is strange. Oil down quite a bit today, but slb, hal and bjs rallied into the close. Tells me there is something on the horizon that we cannot see yet. Maybe Iraq will be introduced to some bombs, who knows. red

To: marc chatman who wrote (31523)	11/5/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: seadust	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Greenspin msg????? Marc or Ron... Do you have a link to Greenspins' message today ??? Can't seem to find anything. Assume is was good news. Any help appreciated. Thanks...WK

To: marc chatman who wrote (31523)	11/6/1998 12:15:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

''THE" correct sector to short ? - you have to be kidding ??? <<"It still looks to me like you picked the correct sector to short. (I can't jinx you unless I short it as well). Short any other sector and you'd be scraping yourself off the floor.">> ....with this overall market run; with many stocks and sectors back to 52 week highs; without fundamental strength - do you really think the ''Oilpatch'' is ''THE'' best sector to short ? Even if you are a manager of a Bear fund, or could only sell short - the Oilpatch would be far, far down the list for any trader as far as being ''the'' sector to short. From a ''timing'' aspect - shorting the Oilpatch right here borders on gambling not investing. And yes; short selling is investing - and I have no problem with shorting anything.... But, when we are still unquestionably undervalued & oversold; when we are on the cusp of 2 major events - another Fed Rate Cut and the OPEC Meeting; and add in the tense situation with Iraq ? - shorting here is gambling - cut & dried. Now if one were to be smart; go to cash here if you don't like the values or the trends; one could short off of the Fed ''not'' cutting, or off of negative OPEC news - now, ''THAT'' would be smart and that would be ''investing.'' <<"There are only so many more days the market can go up 100 points.">> ...now this allmost answers why the Oilpatch is NOT ''the'' sector to short. Short the total market ! Short those 100 point moves ! Short the high PE, high flyers. If we see a major recession - I see hundreds of stocks that will fall much farther than the Oilpatch from here... With a La Nina Winter coming strong, the first signs of a Asian / Japanese recovery all ready being discussed; quite frankly I can see about 27 Sectors that not only I; but the Bears would rank as better short candidates... I think you short at confirmed ''tops'' - that are confirmed as ''tops'' both technically and fundamentally. Shorting the Oilpatch here, is shorting near the bottom; just when both technicals and fundamentals are on the verge of turning. This would be a place to cover shorts imho; certainly not to institute new ones ? The time to short the Oilpatch is when prices are high and fundamentals weak (read falling Crude prices and high stock prices) - like last April-May-June. Imho; the smart move is going to cash here if one senses weakness; just not enough distance or dollars to fall; not enough risk versus reward here. Also, if you short here, look how easy it is to be whipsawed in a moment ? A middle East War breaks out on a moments notice and crude spikes $3+ and the OSX takes off ??? No shorting here; - cash ? - sure...