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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SilverAG who wrote (24871)	11/7/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Charles, In 1996, Jupiter's 1998 e-commerce estimates were half what they're turning out to be.

To: SilverAG who wrote (24871)	11/9/1998 11:09:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<<Let's do a projection of AMZN's 2002 revenues>> Charles 123, are you expecting Amazon to withdraw from all foreign markets? You only included the US in your figures. Better double them to account for global sales. What if they expand into another 6 or 10 markets? Better double or triple again. What if the margin is 2 or 3% instead of 1%? What if AMZN, as expected, becomes a jumping off point for e-commerce, as well as a seller, garnering annual advertising revenue of, say, $50M or $100M annually? Then AMZN does not need a 75% market share. Something more like 25% is realistic, although it could be between 25 and 50% in some sectors. Nobody knows the future, especially for a rapidly changing company like AMZN. Maybe H James Morris is right and the stock will be below $20 in a year. But the scenario on which the bulls are betting is not impossible, as your post implies. JMHO. Best Regards, Tom D