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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (666)	11/7/1998 11:38:00 AM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 7772

<-------I LOVE EBAY like everyone else --- but from a practical standpoint it is a stretch to justify the current market capitalization this exercise has helped me to avoid pitfalls in the past -- it is not perfect and not meant to be a final word -- just a perspective---> James, by any chance have you done a similar analysis on INKT? I see a lot of similarity in stock price movement for the two companies, although ebay seems to be on an even tighter upward trajectory. For example, it only took a month post-IPO for ebay to jolt upwards 23 points in a single day, while inkt soared 20 points one day two months after its IPO. inkt's 15 point rise yesterday, on what appears to be no news as the float is about to increase with the secondary, etc., to me speaks well for ebay's next few months, given that its float should remain stable over that period. :)

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (666)	11/7/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

<I also think that eBay has the online person-to-person market sewn up already. Yahoo is flailing offering free auctions, and doesn't seem to have the brain to do what is necessary to truly intrude on eBay's turf.> As always, Mark, thanks for you ongoing contributions to this thread. Granted ebay has a huge lead on yahoo - and I agree with your analysis. However, isn't it true that yahoo's monthly percentage increase in the number of auctions is outdistancing ebay's by a considerable margin? Aren't ebay's increasing at about 15% a month right now, while yahoo's are increasing at about 50% a month? Granted larger % increases are much easier to attain on a base less than 1/10 that of ebay's. Nevertheless, don't you think that yahoo's current momentum may actually be greater than ebay's?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (666)	11/8/1998 10:58:00 AM
From: James Overko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Doug --thanks for the response --- I do not short stocks -- I do own EBAY -- however I grabbed a substantial profit last week (bought at 30) --- I just think there is not much short term upside based on the capitalization --- I hear MSFT is focusing on this market also -- and nervous stocks with small float can make for some big spikes on the downside ---

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (666)	11/8/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: James Overko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Robert -- I moved all of EBAY $$ profits into MSFT --- ---the cost of a share of stock is only $35 higher and they will make $3 a share next year easily -- EBAY may make $2 in 4 years if everything goes perfect --by that time MSFT will be at 6$ a share profit----AND MSFT has a true monopoly -- entry into EBAY's business is much easier --- this is the type of comparison as well as keeping the HUGE market cap in perspective that makes me wonder where big investor's will put their $$ in the near future------ QUESTION -- Fidelity investments had a news story where MSFT was focusing on the on their entry into the on line aution market--- can someone provide more information about this - thanks

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (666)	11/9/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: James Overko	Respond to of 7772

Doug -- I have taken my market capitalization analysis and eaten it along with a good portion of crow --- I held my breath today and added to my reduced position today despite the fact that the market cap makes no sense..... I have embraced Warren Buffet's statement that "you can not value an internet stock" I have my anti gravity boots on and am ready for a 100 point ride!!!! Maybe in five years I can take out my market capitalization analysis and everything will make sense ------ Go EBAY