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To: Jon Stept who wrote (76956)	11/9/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: On the QT	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Jon Stept Thanks for your thoughts. Much has been posted on the PC sales projections over the next 5 years. My understanding is that the PC sales will continue to appreciate beyond 1999. There is some evidence that this will slow afterwards. Your observations are understood. No question in my mind regarding your assessment of Michael Dell abilities and acumen. I recently posted my take on the Dell situation in response to Sigs input. I think in about a month we will know more. My experience with Forrester like systems actually before it became Forrester was way back at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences at NYU way back in the late fifties and to the early sixties. Went to school at NYU and worked there. Those were exciting times. A professor who I shall leave unnamed had a special interest in what we now call System Dynamics. 'A 'system' means a grouping of parts that operate together for a common purpose.' (As in any teaching environment I'd try to be very aware of non-verbal responses from my listener.) 'As one example we could consider the salmon ecosystem which includes fish, predators, commercial and sports fishermen, the physical environment (cold, clear, running water with gravel beds vs. clearcutting, grazing, silt, and warm water), dams, turbines, and fishladders.' (I'd try to create as broad a laundry list as possible, perhaps drawing my listener in to provide suggestions as well.) 'Another very different example might be the criminal justice system, which includes jails, policemen, judges, criminals, probation officers, victims, families, and the perceptions of the general public.' 'I need to give you several examples here, because system dynamics is not a 'sociology' tool, or an 'ecology' tool, or a 'financial' tool. It is a more general tool that let's us think about, and study, systems in general." 'System Dynamics provides us with two major tools. First is a very simple, but powerful way to develop DIAGRAMS which specifically help us talk to each other about the parts of a system and how they fit together. As we build a diagram together we are forced to talk about our underlying ideas and assumptions, so they become much less fuzzy. We may find that we -cannot- build a diagram that we both agree with. This is a HUGE step forward, because now we have at least clarified our own understanding, and increased our understanding of the other person's 'mental model'.' 'After we have developed a diagram, System Dynamics software allows us to put numbers on each piece of the puzzle, or on each connection between two or more pieces of the puzzle. Then we can run computer simulations which describe the behavior of the 'system' under different conditions (more dams, fewer dams; more rain, less rain; more logging, less logging). Is the model 'right'? We don't know for sure. It can never be 'perfect'. Does it help us understand the system? Yes! Does it increase our awareness of other factors that may be outside our usual viewpoint? Yes! Does it allow us to talk more intelligently to our colleagues, our kids, and our politicians? Yes! This approach will very often identify 'fixes that fail', despite the best intentions of idealistic policy makers. And hopefully, it will lead us to fixes that don't fail . . . " Excerpt from an email to the system dynamics listserv by Ed GallaherAssoc. Prof. Pharmacology and Behavioral NeuroscienceOregon Health Sciences UniversityPortland, OR Jay Forrestor is the man. His contribution to the process of thinking and the use of mathematics to make probability assumptions etc. is immeasurable. Jon don't know if this is the same guy. I am just an old timer trying to kept the old mind young and open to that which is out there, to go where no man ( whoops) sorry girls, where no person has gone before. Let me clarify that, I just went to get beyond what is known. I know very little so it isn't as difficult as people think for me to get to a better place! Willing to learn more. Post me if choose, I'd like to look into Forrester Research. Thanks QT