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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (26050)	11/7/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

This of the FWIW variety----1) The % of stocks now above their 40dma peaked at 82.7% on Nov 5 (it downticked on Fri). Only twice before since 1986-87 has the % been higher (94% in Feb91 and 88.8% in June 97) -----2) On the 8 other occasions where such % peaked out, the DJIA peaked out a minimum of 50 calendar days to a maximum of 361cd later (avg 125cd excluding the one example of 361). In other words the DJ has never peaked out right on the %>40dma peak--suggesting we have to at least Xmas before we see a peak in the DJ assuming the %>40dma stat peaked out last Thursday. The average % gain for the DJ after the peak in the %>40dma peak was 8.3% and ranged from 2.1% to 15.4% (excl the one time aberation of 29% in the precrash 87 period). So, reaching the 9700 area would be in keeping with historical trends. Lo and behold, the Advanced GET trading software is currently suggesting the next peak to be in the 9700 area based on the momentum of prior waves. As i said-fwiw- and no doubt many of us will react to the data to suit our own particular slant. But, as one sceptic, I must admit to being influenced by the prior examples that suggest the DJ has never peaked out from here and needs to go to year end as a min. So a new high is prob in the cards.

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (26050)	11/7/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: Chuck Williams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Hey Tito, That was me and I'm sticking to my story. If we hit 9300 this upturn I'm giving my money to a mutual fund to manage because I obviously don't understand this market, and consequently cannot match the returns of those that do (read: successful fund managers). I really do enjoy following the markets, reading the discourse here on SI, and forming my own opinions on when to buy and sell, but frankly it's getting to be too damn expensive! It is a difficult lesson but one definitely worth learning at 28 as opposed to 48... Good luck to you.

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (26050)	11/7/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Tito, My recent YoYo prediction for AMAT to dip to 31.15 and then to at least test 37 3/8 is close to reality when the stock did dipped to 31.125 and then reached 37 1/4 yesterday; ... that of the DOW testing 9300 may not be too Funny anymore considering the Index is nearing 9000. Your view supports what Tom Dorsey has stated in his Thursday report to brokers, . . ."A vertical count on the Dow Jones 50 point box chart suggest a price objective of 9200 and an incomplete count on a 100 point box chart of the Dow Jones suggests the 11,000 level. We will stick to our conservative number. . ." This looks good for AMAT. Paul V.