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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Mo who wrote (36)	11/9/1998 3:46:00 AM
From: g_m10	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

but I'm not sure what time frame you are using for your scenario...Are you projecting out one year? I was thinking of the end of the next calendar year. I based it on Pete's statements that banks moving to internet much faster than he expected. Banks are dragging everything right now. Does anyone know how many households (or what percentage) are currently banking online? That would seem to indicate whether or not your assumption of 9.45 million households doing online banking a year from now is realistic. I don't have current numbers and I don't think they are any indication of what will be a year from now. Let's try to approach from another side. There 8 mln of Quicken users and, if they go online, they will be using CF. Quicken itself is not necessary for Web banking. I just took them as I expect them to be early adopters. All of them have computers, most of them have Internet and they like to be in control of their money. If only half of them connect to their banks we are arriving at 4 mln CF customers. I think it justifies my estimate of 3 mln CF customers in the previous post. I don't even count people like myself, that never bothered to install Quicken, but enjoy doing banking after midnight from the comfort of my chair. My point is there are enough potential early adopters, and, as it stands now, the ball is in the banks' corner. Furthermore, shouldn't we be able to expect more than 27% of households to be online one year from now?... And I'd like to think that CKFR will account for more than 1/3 of these customers...but I understand you are trying to be conservative. And number of bills per house hold might be more than 10. I have two home lines, car phone and pager; more than one insurance, more than one credit card, etc. And businesses will be jumping on Web banking. And bill presentment, and ACH, etc., etc., etc. The last August is still fresh in memory and I'm trying to be conservative in my estimates. And lastly, your scenario only addresses bill payment, correct? Yet bill presentment is supposed to be our biggest moneymaker, isn't it? I don't have any information to even guess about bill presentmet and I'm not sure about its share in CF's future earnings. In any case it is not going to hurt the bottom line. And don't forget to mention time frames, because that's the critical element, I think, in determining when our stock starts moving. Maurice, as I said with timing I have to rely on Pete's words and my observations. As we all know, Pete is just a human. My observations don't bring any numbers to the discusion, but still is worth mentioning. I believe that all six banks in Canada already have Web banking. All my relatives and friends are using web banking. My bank accross the road from my home stopped working on Saturdays and cut hours on weekdays. Once a week, when I have to go to ATM, I can see that number of tellers is less than it was just a year ago. Maybe this is just a wishful thinking. Just my 2c and I was wrong so many times.