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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15233)	11/9/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I guess that we have discusses in the past about the YHOO! situation. Well, everything goes for YHOO!. Everyone believes that YHOO! is going to dominate the internet and everyone believes that the top internet company is going to be the best place to go. IF YHOO! delivers, I won't be surprised to see that the issue commands a market cap of 100 billion within the next 3-5 years. I think that YHOO! is a much better investment than the likes of DELL & CSCO, which I am currently long heavily. Heck, even the short interest bodes well for YHOO!. I just can't understand why people will short a market favorite when the short interest is just enormous. Only four things can crash YHOO!: 1) another company devises a portal that seriously challenges the king status of YHOO! (Softie?!); 2) short interest goes down 90%; 3) market crashes and DOW goes down to test new lows; 4) YHOO! misses earnings (NO WAY! These anal-ysts, although stupid, are pretty shrewd and know very well about the game on the Street. They are setting the earning bar so ridiculously low that even Forrest Gump can tell in one second that YHOO! is going to beat the first calls handily). In the near future, I don't see any of these happening and that's why YHOO! is going up higher. I mentioned earlier that YHOO! should form a near term top at around 165. But in 3 months, this baby is gonna test 200 and another split should be announced when they announce earnings for next quarter.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15233)	11/9/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, maybe you pay a look at Geron (GERN), now it is still 13 3/4 and most of the guys are still short. To disclose I shorted all the way up between 18 and 23. Talk is that geron will inevitably trade in the single digits, volume and price plummeted. It should not take more than a week. After the hype died, geron deserved a nice short and it will. What contibutes to the fact is: -the total weakness of the stock in recent trading -history of gern shows that regardless whether market was bullish or not, geron erased all of their gains weeks if not days after the run-up. THis happens on a frequent yearly period. -the scientific findings of the company may be great, though they will not materialize before 5 to 10 years. Forward dilution (and geron did dilutive trades in the past, too) is highly probable. -geron works in a competitive scientific field with big-shots like Novartis as competitors. As price follows volume and the volume is already dying from a 5 million per trading hour to a more moderate 400 k /trading hour, so dies the price it offers nice possibility to jump aboard and ride out the slow dive. I hope that cures some problems with the pocket book and doesn't sound too much alike hype to you. I'm sorry for you that you had no luck with yhoo this time. C. Not only XCIT, EBAY and INKT have flown in the sky. YHOO went 166 aftermarket (!!)

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15233)	11/9/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I agree with larry that yhoo is not a good short. Technically, amzn looks like it is injured and has made a permanent high. No-one can say that yhoo has made a high, or even how many digits its stock price will be at its high. Yhoo will be one of the last to fall IMO. However, I agree with you that this market has left all rationality behind it. As proof just look at the lowly small cap semi equipment companies. According to the analysts they are going to have a truly dreadful year in '99 and yet most of them are 2-3 times higher than they were a month ago. It is money chasing money chasing money and where it ends nobody knows. I predict it will stop at either 9000 (which means last Friday was the high), or 9300 (whatever the old high was in the summer) or at worst around 10K. I don't know how far the market will correct once it stops but I would guess at least 5-10%. I don't think the market can be stopped by its own internal dynamics- it will require an external shock, probably overseas turmoil, to jerk it back to its senses. If I was Greenspan I would be a little afraid of continuing to ease here. I am sure if he does ease we go up a minimum of 300 and very likely 500 points immediately. The market at the heights in the summer was more rational than this one is because it was basically the superstars like msft, dell, csco, etc that were driving the market up. They had and still have great prospects and great earnings. Now the market is being driven higher by companies like asyt and cien and cymi with horrible prospects for at least the next 6 months. If the market(makers) really wanted to scare the hell out of almost everybody, especially the small time investor, then a collapse here would do it. But there are too many institutional forces, such as the big boys, the Fed, etc that will prevent that from happening. I could see us retesting 8000 but that is as low as I can see it getting till march or april. Dell's earnings this Thursday and the Fed next week are the last two big boosts the market has lined up. After that, with options expiring in Nov, I could see Nov 23 as the long delayed start of the "correction". Traditionally Nov-Dec are very strong but after this Oct we may not follow that tradition this time.