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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (15237)	11/9/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

cadet, the only certainty in this market seems to be uncertainty. I don't know what will be the trigger that snaps the market or when it will happen, but it is very vulnerable at these levels. And it will be nasty when everyone tries to exit at the same time. One trigger could be Congress actions, I am not sure they got the message on November 3rd and may continue to dog Clinton.

To: space cadet who wrote (15237)	11/10/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Space, On the small cap semi equipment makers, some of those "analysts" are beginning to change their tune. Dataquest (or one of the other biggies) reported last week that the DRAM glut is slowing, and that apparently we could face a shortage in late 1999 if capacity isn't improved. The Taiwanese have buying cautiously. The "analysts" often really don't understand the business of the cap-equipment guys, especially the smaller niche players. They USUALLY miss the signs of the coming upturn until orders actually materialize, at which point they issue a report noting that things have been moving that way, that the orders confirm it, and that it's time to buy. Smart investors usually are there six months sooner, and it doesn't take a lot of small investors to push up the price on some of the smaller guys. mg

To: space cadet who wrote (15237)	11/10/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

If you can't stand the thought of naked shorting of amzn just go long and sell a Nov call deep in the money. You'll even have a little premium to pad the transaction costs. Come expiration week if the stock has pulled back, cover the call and roll out to a December call deeper in the money. What's the catch with this type of play? I suppose it would only continue until your stock is called or the price drops like a rock far below the strike. You thus would need some sort of put that would raise costs. Greg