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To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (82)	11/10/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

I think I am being too agreeable, because I agreed with PX, and now feel somewhat convinced by your argument that desktop storage needs have reached peak. I feel like living proof on my 2 gig hard drive when I made my original post. But, do you think the desktop as we know it today is just going to be a low margin end point? Or will there be a continuing evolution into a pc/tv/vcr/house control center/etc.?

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (82)	11/10/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Respond to of 1989

Follow up thoughts. If the evolution ends there, then high end development will be much more expensive per unit sold. In other words, it will be harder to justify high end research if the costs can't be amortized over all drives. Wouldn't this be a fundamental change in the research budget model?

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (82)	11/10/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Yogi, <<Desktop computers will evolve into communication terminals with some relatively small (if you can call 8-20 gigs small) local storage. >> Naw. Yogi, you really have to take into account consumer demand for "software". Digital photography and edutainment/entertainment titles will come on strong in the consumer market, and the delivery systems will be on-line. But I will wager that limited use licensing, and other schemes that avoid outright purchase of the titles, will not be efficient or necessarily convenient or attractive for the consumer. How many books, CDs, VHS tapes, Phillips casettes, photo albums, card index files, etc. do you own? 8-20 aint enough buddy. Best, Stitch

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (82)	11/10/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

Re: End of the line for desktop capacity Your argument is persuasive. The killer apps of TODAY are indeed communications apps. Paul Z. Pilzer in his somewhat facetiously entitled book "God Wants You to be Rich" presents an interesting and compelling theory about the building fortunes shifting from manufacturing to distribution. Every day I see more evidence of the accuracy of that theory. However I have a two point rebuttal your zero desktop growth thesis: 1. There have always been skeptics of uses for advancing PC technology, all the way back to the days of the 80286, whose introduction was greeted by some naysayers who wondered what people would ever do with so much power on their desktop. 2. Travel forward into the future 3 years. Consider the PC of November, 2001. What operating system will people be running on it? What kinds of applications will people be using it for? What is the array of capabilities it will have? We can't know these things. But history has shown again and again that new applications and new, useful functionality does arrive to harness available power and capacity. But I would argue that underlying technology and applications demanding it dont develop in lockstep -- sometimes one outstrips the other, and it's clear that, right now, the technology has outstripped the applications. --- Of course, it -IS- very possible that you're right, and evolution on the desktop has come to an end. Frankly I can't envision the application that would create MASS MARKET demand for 20 GB HDDs. But if one doesn't materialize, some HDD makers are in deep deep doodoo. --- Your vision a bit like the concept of the NC. What's your take on that new NC company headed by the ex-Sybase chief?