Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: articwarrior who wrote (31681)	11/10/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Something doesn't make sense to me: Did anyone see the WSJ article that reported the IEA news about oil prices forecast to continue to be low in 1999? There seems to be a consistent theme of reporting the total world-wide amount of oil in storage in subjective terms like "swimming in oil" or "there's a lot of oil out there", yet I never see a number. The "missing 300 million barrels" makes me suspicious too. But if you look at the article it not only does not give the world wide storage number, it doesn't calculate a per day draw/add number. In fact it throws a lot of numbers out there for supply and demand in 1999, but according to my calculations, worldwide storage supplies is dropping every day. Here is how I get it: OPEC's September numbers: 27.19 mbpd 1998 Non-Opec: 44.6 mbpd 1998 Demand: 74.3 mbpd Total 1998 supply DRAW: 2.51 mbpd OPEC's September numbers: 27.19 mbpd 1999 Non-Opec: 45.6 mbpd 1998 Demand: 75.6 mbpd Total 1999 supply Draw: 2.81 mbpd Of course I am assuming OPEC supply stays constant and yearly numbers are averages. But the IEA must be discounting any significant compliance from OPEC. According to these numbers the world-wide storage is being drawn down by around 75 million barrels a month. API just focuses on the U.S., the U.S. storage could be a little higher than normal and on average the rest of the world could have storage lower than normal. Since OPEC has been cutting output for a while, it makes you wonder if that 300 million barrels is real ??? Sometimes I think there is collusion amoung the oil companies to perpetuate the oil glut myth just to buy up smaller oil companies cheaply (BP-Amaco for one) As far as IRAQ goes, We could get a situation where oil supply from IRAQ is reduced for a long period of time and that would help oil drillers, because we do not have the extra world-wide capacity that we had in 1991. Why would the U.S. not hit the oil infrastructure in IRAQ? They could hit 1/3 of it so that IRAQ couldn't cheat anymore and sell oil on the black market.