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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26117)	11/10/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ramsey, Re:Wherever the herd is heading, I like to stay clear. I agree with you, to a point. However, there have been many herds into DELL, CSCO and even AMAT in the early 90's. Did it make sense to buy even then if your horizon is long? The answer is obvious. As far as the preannouncement is concerned, first the estimates have not been moved down, I believe they've been moved up from last Q, meaning INTC will be leaping a higher hurdle. The time before earnings release date they preannounce is significant because it shows confidence that should an area of the world fall to sh**, they will have ample demand to meet their upwardly revised guidance. Usually cos. preannounce only when they are certain the hurdle will be leapt, usually 2-3 weeks before the actual earnings release. Theya re preannouncing 2 months ahead. The fact that INTC is this confident this far from the earnings release says volumes about the strength of the chip market at the moment. BK

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26117)	11/10/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Artslaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ramsey, I hope you are right. I sold my very tiny INTC position today and am short NVLS. I am expecting to regret both tomorrow. . . Steve

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26117)	11/11/1998 1:24:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

A couple more data points for you to consider. Message 6368962

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26117)	11/11/1998 6:14:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Ramsey Re: "All I can say is I have not seen for quite some time the herd stampeding in the same direction as strong as now. Wherever the herd is heading, I like to stay clear." Good luck on this one. I rely upon the herd to increase the value of my portfolio in what is clearly a bull market. Without a herd, longs will not prosper. But you will not have to worry about the herd when you go to 100% cash. Unless, of course, you fear a bank run.